tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15704838993437651572024-03-13T18:50:25.705-05:00The Invisible PrimaryAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-73740614482607449932015-12-12T20:36:00.001-06:002015-12-12T20:36:57.506-06:00I'll Tell You WhatWhat, my dear friends, could compel me to post after so long?<br />
The Donald.<br />
Doesn't he just shake up the political landscape? To quote the best Eddie Murphy stand up from the 1980s: I gotta story to tell. <br />
<br />
So, I'm sitting at my daughter's volleyball practice and, as I am wont to do, I am grading papers. Out of the periphery of my vision I see a man turn to look at me. I raise my head and without any inviting inflection (no smile, no nod - I don't know this guy) he begins to just just talk:<br />
<br />
"I'll tell you what. This country is gonna be MUCH better when Donald Trump is president."<br />
<br />
Um. What? I must have stared at him blankly because he went on:<br />
<br />
"And I'll tell you what. When Obama was elected, I KNEW this country was gonna fail and it did. You know why?"<br />
<br />
Uh....<br />
<br />
"Because he's not an American. And he don't even salute the troops!"<br />
<br />
Uh....<br />
<br />
"I gotta friend at Letterkenny and he says Obama don't even salute the troops and my friend served in Iraq and he knows that Obama don't even salute the troops and he's not a real American."<br />
<br />
Uh...<br />
<br />
"And I'll tell you what. I got nothing against women. I like women. My boss is a woman and she don't take no bullshit from no one and I like women. you know what I'm saying?"<br />
<br />
Uh...<br />
<br />
"So I don't got no problem with a woman president. Not Hillary -- she's shady as fuck. But a woman president? I got no problem with that. You know who would make a good woman president?"<br />
<br />
Blank stare.<br />
<br />
"Sarah Palin."<br />
<br />
Okay. I know you think I'm making this up, and I have to admit -- when he threw down the Palin reference I started to look around for the hidden camera to see if Lonce Bailey was taping this for Facebook. I expected Ashton Kutcher to jump out and punk me. I started to think that he was a method actor from NYC who had come into town for a gig and got some extra scratch for messing with me. I didn't believe it was real for one moment because, honestly, I know no one who even <i>thinks </i>about Sarah Palin any more.<br />
<br />
But then I realized that our media allows me to not know anyone who thinks about Palin any more. And therein lies the problem. We have stopped talking to each other and have started talking past one another. But I digress.<br />
<br />
Most of my close friends who live in cities will think I am making this up for giggles -- but this guy is real as rain and he represents the <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/74221/return-middle-american-radical">35% of the public who likes what Trump is saying.</a> This is honest and raw and awful -- but it ain't no joke. <br />
<br />
Remember how we used to chant: "We're here! We're queer! Get used it to and don't fuck with me!" Well guess what? Turn that on it's head and we have the Trump supporters.<br />
<br />
Surprise!<br />
<br />
My own personal Trump supporter (and apparent Palin aficionado) eventually ran out out steam (I will spare you the truly virulent racist stuff) and took a beat: "You a teacher? That's cool" wherein he went back to his iPhone and I sat in stunned silence. I hadn't ever spoken to him, nor had I had the chance to reply in any form, to correct the missteps or untruths and maybe that was for the best. He wouldn't have believed me anyway, and what's the point when talking to someone who had a <br />
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grammatical error on his tee shirt? (I took that photo before it all went down and sent it to my sister with a snort of laughter and cheer in my heart for typos.) Plus the tee shirt was right: I am thinking about him. Bless his heart. <br />
<br />
The point here is not that Trump supporters are dumb, but rather they are angry a hell and it doesn't matter how many fact-checkers take him to task for just making shit up. We can dismiss the supporters, call Trump fascist, but in the end The Donald<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/i-will-never-leave-this-race/2015/12/08/af1b1d46-9ad2-11e5-8917-653b65c809eb_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trump-910am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory"> is here to stay </a>and we might just have (cheers to YOU Niel Brasher!) <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/12/11/for-republicans-contested-1976-convention-looms-over-2016-race/?_r=0">a brokered convention. </a><br />
<br />
He will not win a general (we all know that) but he will change the conversation and I think that change is for the worse. Not to be too blunt about it, but just watch the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY">2008 language at work</a>: It was hope. It was lovely and it was positive. And it was right. <br /><br />"Yes we can." <br />
<br />
Where are we now, 7 years later? A nation plagued with hatred and anger and bigotry and a hint towards the kind of intolerance that I honestly thought we had moved beyond. As a human it makes me sad. But I listen to the 2008 video linked above and it gives me hope again -- because we are America. "And if we stand together we will begin the next great chapter in the American story with the three words that will bring hope: Yes we can."<br />
<br />
We just need to get past this character. Trump. How dare he do this to us? He has a right - the Founders said so and I trust them. But they also created a system where he does not have to take over.<br />
<br />
He's here. Get used to it. But don't stand for it.<br />
<br />
Yes. We. Can. <br />
<br />
<br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-74884068727281624482015-05-14T17:43:00.000-05:002015-05-14T17:43:50.559-05:00Once More, Unto the Breach Dear FriendsIn the aftermath of the 2012 election, where GOP big shots from Karl Rove down to Mitt Romney sat stunned because they believed that the election was in the bag (and should have been in the bag), the GOP began a round of soul searching, as well as finger pointing (who can forget Mitt's double down comments crediting Obama's re-election to "<a href="http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/romney-blames-loss-on-obamas-gifts-to-minorities-and-young-voters/" target="_blank">gifts</a>" to a variety of parasitical citizens)?<br />
<br />
In the aftermath of this soul searching, the GOP produced a fairly interesting and revealing introspection about how the party would need to change if it wanted to win presidential elections, starting with the open-seat election in 2016. The result of this introspection is a 100 page document titled the "<a href="http://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdf" target="_blank">Growth and Opportunity Project</a>". On page 69, the article focuses on the primaries, and especially the debates that took place among the potential nominees.<br />
<br />
The authors note that in 1980, there were just six debates. In 2000 there were 13. But then in 2008 and 2012, the number of debates exploded, with 21 and 20 respectively. Furthermore, in 1980, the first debate did not take place until the Iowa Caucuses were about to begin, while in 2012 the first debate took place eight months before Iowa:<br />
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In addition to the large quantity of debates, there was the added problem of two debates held back to back within a 12 hour period--the first in the evening on Saturday January 7, 2012 and the second in the morning on Sunday, January 8, 2012.<br />
<br />
The authors argue that it is time for the Party to get control over the timing, sponsorship, and candidate participation of GOP debates because currently the GOP brand, and candidates, are being hurt via a collusion of the liberal media and unelectable candidates who push for more, and not less, debates. They note:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The media will decide how many debates the party should have instead of the Party making the decision. In order to have a process that respects a candidate's time and one that helps the Party win (71).</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br />
Their recommendations for 2016:<br />
<ul>
<li>Hold between 10-12 debates beginning no earlier than September 2015 and ending somewhere around Super Tuesday in late February or early March.</li>
<li>After the last round of debates, if there continues to be a competitive battle between two or more candidates (similar to 2008 for the Democrats), then it should be up to the candidates to decide if they want to accept or decline additional debates</li>
<li>The RNC needs to get control of the scheduling process as soon as possible: by announcing the number of debates as well as when they will begin in late 2014 or early 2015, before the field of candidates has had a chance to get set. Further, the RNC should penalize any candidate or state party that defects from the schedule by attending non-sanctioned debates (or hosting non-sanctioned debates) by taking away delegates going into the GOP Convention in the summer of 2016, or more realistically, by barring from sponsored debates the participation of candidates who appear in non-sponsored debates.</li>
</ul>
The RNC did <a href="http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-republican-primary-debate-schedule/" target="_blank">announce its schedule</a> of "sanctioned" debates: five in 2015 and then five more in 2016, with the first one held in Cleveland (also the home to their summer convention) on August 6, 2015 and the last one in March 2016, location TBD. And no mystery, the big winner as far as hosts go is "Fox News" (or its subsidiary, the "Fox Business Channel"), which will air four of the debates. In addition, the conservative Salem Media Group is also a big winner, sponsoring three of the debates.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdf" target="_blank">paper</a> underscores a long standing tension between political parties, candidates, and the media when it comes to who or what matters during election time. Back in 1969, the McGovern-Fraser Commission changed the control over the selection of party nominees, removing it from the party leadership and handing it over to the rank and file voter in the 50 states and territories. As a result, who mattered in presidential elections shifted from Party-Candidate to Candidate-Media. In fact, we can lay a great deal of the blame at the feet of the Democrats for agreeing to implement the Commission reforms, because it brought with it the need for incredibly enormous sums of money and a near dependence upon political advertising (one going hand in hand with the other). Furthermore, it removed the party from having any influence over the choice of nominees, often getting stuck with the least desirable candidate. More recently, the political parties have been trying, with some success, to regain control over the selection of candidates and the direction of campaigns (<a href="http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/comm/groeling/web/CV_files/VinsonReview.pdf" target="_blank">see, for example</a>, Groeling's <u>When Parties Attack: Party Cohesion in the Media</u>. NY: Cambridge University Press. 2010).<br />
<br />
<br />
Jonathan Martin, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/us/politics/gop-seeks-strategy-for-debates-amid-expanding-candidate-list.html" target="_blank">writing</a> in yesterday's <i>New York Times</i>, draws attention to the problems the GOP faces as it rushes headlong into the 2016 election cycle with a number of top shelf and bottom shelf candidates, versus the Democrats, who have Hillary Clinton and not much else (with all due respect to that loyal Bernie Sanders contingent). The article also illustrates a particular problem regarding who gets to decide who appears in those debates sanctioned by the GOP. From the lede:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Republican leaders, searching for a fair-minded but strategically wise
way to conduct the presidential primary debates, are grappling with how
to manage White House contenders in a sprawling field that mixes proven
politicians with provocateurs and reflects an increasingly fractious
party.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br />
At the moment, there does not seem to be a fair way to decide who appears and who does not. As Martin argues, relying on polling could preclude current or former GOP politicians from participating because they may not be well known to the public at large. What is especially ironic, or delicious, depending on your political views, is that <a href="http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=candidate-selection-process" target="_blank">public opinion polling</a> is the weapon that the Democrats and Republicans use to keep third party candidates out of the presidential debates, and no one from either Party or from the <a href="http://www.debates.org/" target="_blank">Commission on Presidential Debates</a> suggest any problems exist from using public opinion polling as a barrier to entry. The problem for the GOP is relying only on public opinion polling to decide who participates or not is likely to be the very thing that pushes candidates into appearing in non-sanctioned debates. And if some attend the non-sanctioned debates, you can bet most, if not all, will attend.<br />
<br />
The GOP face the additional problem of optics in winnowing the field. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/us/politics/gop-seeks-strategy-for-debates-amid-expanding-candidate-list.html" target="_blank">From Martin</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Many Republicans laboring to improve the party’s image recoil from the
prospect that whatever debate-eligibility criteria are adopted could
result in the barring of the only woman, Carly Fiorina, the former
Hewlett-Packard chief executive, or Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon
who is the only African-American candidate.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
But if they decide to allow Fiorina and Carson to attend while cutting other candidates such as my State's Governor John Kasich, the GOP face the additional problem of appearing to embrace affirmative action. <br />
<br />
So how does the GOP leadership see a way to resolve this problem? As Martin <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/us/politics/gop-seeks-strategy-for-debates-amid-expanding-candidate-list.html" target="_blank">notes</a>, for the first debate in August:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
One member of the national committee panel charged with overseeing the
debates said its members had discussed ceding the decision entirely to
Fox News.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br />
So pass the buck is your answer? <br />
<br />
It may just be that the GOP leadership is looking at this in the wrong way. While I am sympathetic to the problem of over exposure--too many debates--as well as over simplification--too many people on the stage forces each person to boil down complex arguments into bite sized nuggets due to time constraints, the GOP should be asking themselves just what do debates in general accomplish? What impact do they really have on the eventual decisions that American voters make in November?<br />
<br />
Martin seems to believe that debates do make a difference. He <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/us/politics/gop-seeks-strategy-for-debates-amid-expanding-candidate-list.html" target="_blank">argues</a>: "...as the 2012 primary demonstrated, televised debates can instantaneously reshape presidential races...".<br />
<br />
He also <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/us/politics/gop-seeks-strategy-for-debates-amid-expanding-candidate-list.html" target="_blank">suggests</a> that candidates who do get excluded as a result of the criteria that the GOP, in conjunction with the media, develop will take their anger to<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
...conservative websites and talk radio to foment anger at the so-called
Republican establishment — an assault that could undermine the national
committee’s hold on the debate process.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br />
If you believe people like John Sides, these pre-primary and primary debates do not matter much in affecting the electoral chances of the eventual nominee. In fact, the benefit from these debates is two fold (at least):<br />
<br />
First, it does act as a kind of training ground for the eventual nominees, who will only get three chances to debate one another in the general election (<a href="http://www.debates.org/" target="_blank">the list</a> of potential debate sites is currently available at the Commission on Presidential Debates).<br />
<br />
Second, these debates can save the party from making a very bad decision on a candidate who may be a media darling, but is nowhere near ready for prime time (think former Texas Governor Rick Perry).<br />
<br />
It seems to me that the problem of superficiality, which some critics believe stems from too many candidates in the race, is less a result of the number of debates or the number of participants, and more the result of the media's role in the process, starting with sponsorship of the debates. Each one of the ten GOP debates is sponsored by a media organization--either cable or broadcast television. And if you recall the 2012 primary debates, the media coverage, coupled with the questions asked, were down right offensive to the intellect of the audience. Examples?<br />
<br />
In the June 2011 debate that <i>CNN</i> sponsored, the moderator, John King, said this:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
All right. I want to -- got to work in one more break before we go.
We've got a lot more ground to cover. Believe it or not, our candidates
-- we're running out of time here. <br /><br />
Into and out of every
break we're having a little experiment called "This or That." <br /> <br /> Governor Pawlenty, to you, Coke or Pepsi? <br /> <br /> PAWLENTY: Coke. </blockquote>
<br />Or worse yet, who could forget the <i>CNN</i> "Tea Party" sponsored debate in September 2011, which <a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2011/09/13/tea-party-debate-part-1.cnn" target="_blank">had an introduction</a> that was straight out of <i>Monday Night Football</i> or professional wrestling, or <a href="http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/fewer-primary-debates-is-a-good-idea-but-probably-not-achievable/" target="_blank">this</a> from intellectual powerhouse Wolf Blitzer:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Tonight, eight candidates, one stage, one chance to take part in a
groundbreaking debate. The Tea Party support and the Republican
nomination, on the line right now.”</blockquote>
And finally, regarding the worry about the power of the fringe to take to conservative media and to bring down the Party is giving to much credit to the fringe and to conservative media. As John Sides and Lynn Vavreck <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10350.html" target="_blank">argue in <u>The Gamble</u></a>, one of the mistakes that Mitt Romney made in the primary back in 2012 was to over-estimate the power and the size of the Tea Party faction within the GOP, forcing him to take conservative stands when he did not need to. And political talk radio, once a force in American, and Republican, politics <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2014/04/15/has-rush-limbaugh-finally-reached-the-end-of-the-road/" target="_blank">has disintegrated</a> as a result of an aging audience and the continual fragmentation of our media into a million little pieces.<br />
<br />
It will be something to watch as 2016 comes closer into view to see whether or not the Party, or the candidate, has real pull in the election cycle. But if the last two election cycles are any guide, having fewer debates is not likely to happen in 2016, or in any other presidential election cycle to come. <br />
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<br /><br />kelusmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14846929688863555774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-28338101440141055862015-04-24T16:12:00.000-05:002015-04-25T08:14:46.276-05:00Zombie Myths: Invisible Primary EditionRecently in the political science blogosphere there's been a venting on some of the enduring "zombie" myths. Despite the good work of several political scientists outreach towards journalists, and a warm reception to that outreach by many reporters, some of these myths just tend to stick around, the self-hair pulling and <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/mythbusting-politics.html" target="_blank">head bashing</a> of the academy notwithstanding. Though I missed the tweet that started the <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-16/what-political-scientists-can-t-get-you-to-believe" target="_blank">avalanche</a> over at Jon Bernstein's blog, and thus missed my chance to weigh in, I'll take the opportunity to throw out a few of my pet peeves in the coverage and perception of the invisible primary.<br />
<br />
1. <b>Money ≠ Success</b>. Political scientists have known this for years. While I'm still not sure about money buying happiness (I'll volunteer to be in the experimental group on that test), we political scientists are quite certain that it cannot buy elections. Granted, much of what we know about money and electoral success comes from general elections, which are far more predictable than primary elections making campaigning and spending less important. Still, presidential primaries are national events, requiring a solid network of volunteers in state after state to be viable. While money can certainly buy some resources necessary for nation-wide network building, it still requires help that cannot be purchased. Support from office holders in the form of endorsements is key. Throw in the fact that it's these office holders that are actively seeking out good candidates in the invisible primary, we're left in a position where, last I checked, these aren't on the auction block.<br />
<br />
2. <b>Self-financed candidates are toast. I mean carbonized, burnt to a crisp toast. </b>These folks are usually self-financed for a reason, they just don't have the networks necessary to win over party activists and their financial constituents. Even when they get a degree of funds from other donors, their lack of political experience and allies just leaves them at a systematic disadvantage. While this is something of an apples/oranges comparison, contrast the 2002 gubernatorial campaign of Mitt Romney with the 2010 campaigns of Carly Fiorina and Meg Whiman. Romney, who at that point had only an election loss or two as the sum total of his political career, was actively recruited invisible primary style by a handful of Massachusetts Republican activists. While the organizational ranks of Bay State Republicans is admittedly scant relative to the Democrats, they had a successful string of Republican gubernatorial runs. However, they were dissatisfied with the prospect of incumbent Jane Swift (who assumed office as a result of Paul Cellucci resigning to become ambassador to the Great White North) running in her own right, and unceremoniously dumped her for Romney. Fiorina and Whitman were classic cases of self-financed candidates that hit a ceiling, pushing the bounds of what money can buy you politically. At the state level it may in fact get you a nomination, but it won't get you too far when running for your party's nomination for the presidency. Just ask President Forbes.<br />
<br />
3. <b>Super-PACs and sugar daddies ain't everything either.</b> While it's clear that super PACs are changing the dynamics of campaign funding, and they've yet to come into their own in terms of strategies and effectiveness, they're still an improper measurement of success in the invisible primary. Again, the invisible primary is an elite driven affair. <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/the-money-is-party.html" target="_blank">Gregory Koger</a> is spot on in his assessment that mega-donors a type of elite whose power is becoming more important at the expense of traditional party players through the ability to buoy poor candidates like Gingrich that would have been weeded out earlier in the process a few cycles ago. But at least for now, their donations are hardly determinative. And as his MoF colleague <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/who-is-robert-mercer-how-mega-donors.html" target="_blank">Richard Skinner</a> points out, there's bound to be counter spending of super PACs and sugar daddies who are more party oriented to match the more candidate centered sugar daddies supporting the fringier personalities.<br />
<br />
4. <b><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/12/why-you-should-ignore-the-republican-presidential-primary-polls/" target="_blank">Ignore</a> the polls.</b> Political scientists as a class have been saying this for as long as polls have been taken at this stage of the election. As the invisible primary is largely, well, invisible, preferences of voters in the early stages have little predictive power at this stage. All the things that invisible primary success can bring a candidate (endorsements, party activist/network support, greater news coverage) aren't going to be apparent to the average voter until a few months ahead of Iowa, so there's no use asking them about their preferences that far out. Couple this with the fact that we have a ridiculously crowded Republican field at this moment, you're just not going to get much utility from asking voters their preferences right now. While they are readily available to busy journalists rushing to make a deadline (as opposed to where the real invisible primary action is), it's sour low-hanging fruit.<br />
<br />
5. <b>Especially those <a href="http://invisibleprimary.blogspot.com/2015/03/50-shades-of-cpac.html" target="_blank">damned straw polls</a></b>. Republican nominees Gramm, Bachmann, Robertson, Bauer, and Paul can tell you how prescient these things are, whether they're of CPAC or Iowa flavors. The events that surround them also tend to be terrible indicators of invisible primary success, since the crowds at these events are hardly representative of all the key invisible primary players. While they can be fun to watch, or indeed soul sucking experiences where we lose degrees of faith in democracy itself, they're not going to give you any real sense of who's going to come out on top in the nomination.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-91125493380267212472015-03-05T12:33:00.000-06:002015-03-05T12:33:30.046-06:0050 Shades of CPAC<div class="MsoNormal">
50 Shades of CPAC<o:p></o:p></div>
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We’re back! For a variety of personal and professional
reasons, the two primary contributors to this blog have been on something of a
hiatus since last summer. Speaking for myself, I’ve been as busy as I’ve ever
been in my professional life trying to make demonstrable progress on four
working papers under a 3-3 teaching load. There are times I truly envy my
friends in the private sector who only have to work 40-50 hours over a five day
work week…<o:p></o:p></div>
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In an attempt to hit the ground running, I’d thought I’d
elaborate a bit upon John Sides’ take on this go around of the annual CPAC
conference. In perhaps what is the best commentary I’ve seen on the event yet,
@monkeycageblog tweeted out this gem:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Let me preface the discussion with this: within my short
life as a political scientist, I’ve seen clear changes, good progress really,
in how the media covers the invisible primary. A decade or so ago, if the words
“invisible” and “primary” happened to collide together in the same sentence,
your average journalist, perhaps political scientist even, wouldn’t have had
the foggiest idea of what it was referring to. Compare that to the last couple
of presidential election cycles where reporters have routinely begun to refer
to the process and report on it in a much more informed fashion. This is
clearly a case where political science’s engagement with journalists has had a positive
impact on popular media coverage. Despite this wide recognition of the
importance of the invisible primary in steering the parties towards nominees on
the part of a growing number of journalists, the media tends to focus on
invisible primary events that are most conspicuous. And in this instance, it means
focusing in on the wrong place. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The problem with the CPAC conference is that this particular
piece of low hanging fruit is probably the least useful in getting a grasp on
which candidates are in doing best in the ongoing deliberations amongst policy
activists within the Republican party network. The history of success at CPAC
is far from perfect in predicting the eventual nomination. Let’s face it, the comments of a few fringe candidates make for
interesting news items, despite the fact that they test my faith in democracy in
general and more narrowly make me wonder how I ever had sympathies with this
particular crowd in years past (yes, it can be painful, hence the title). Couple
that with the fact that the straw poll gives a nice quantifiable capstone to
the event, you can see why journalists pay it a great deal of attention. However, CPAC is
at best a snapshot of the opinions of a few of the “fringier” factions within
the party. Libertarian-ish types, check; Populist Tea Party-ish types, check; a
good showing of Republican office holders, [crickets]. <o:p></o:p></div>
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We know from experience, that the support of members of congress,
governors, and other elected office holders is absolutely key in winning the
invisible primary because of the organizational resources that they bring with
them and the cues they give to others in the party. Voters do indeed take heed to the opinions of the "elite". When the key party actors aren’t present in force for the
conversation taking place at CPAC, whatever visible cues we get from conference
will be a mighty incomplete picture of the party wide deliberation. </div>
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So props
Senator Rand Paul for his continued sweep of this series. And, a shout out to
Scott Walker for nearly pulling off a dark horse win. But when you’re a dark
horse behind Rand Paul, from a crowd that barely resembles the key constituents
of the Republican party network, neither of them, nor Republicans, nor the general public,
should be taking any of these results to the bank. I dare say we should stick with Prof. Sides, and look elsewhere for clues as to who's really cleaning up in the invisible primary.<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-39965935962773201792014-06-17T10:43:00.001-05:002014-06-17T20:20:00.566-05:00Invisible Primary Ala Turca, Part TwoThe invisible primary here in Turkey has taken a decisive turn in the last 24 hours. On Tuesday it was announced in a <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-main-opposition-parties-to-nominate-ex-head-of-islamic-body-ihsanoglu-for-presidency.aspx?pageID=238&nID=67850&NewsCatID=338" target="_blank">joint press conference</a> held by CHP and MHP bosses Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Devlet Bahceli that they had made a "grand conciliation" to jointly nominate Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu to run in the upcoming presidential election. While I certainly didn't expect them to take my advice and nominate Abdullah Gul, they've probably set themselves up for a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_(cricket)" target="_blank">duck</a> in August's election (yes I do indeed use cricket terms). Though I don't know much about the person's background other than what's been reported today, I think this was about as bad of a decision as they could have made. Despite a sound reputation of intelligence, honesty, and a recent high profile spat with Erdogan, it's patent that he's a political neophyte and the two parties are making a very superficial ploy to name someone with a degree of Islamist street cred to take on Erdogan. Unless something big happens to bring Tayyip's reputation down in the next two months - and the man's survived the tapes where we hear him discussing how to hide a billion euros in cash of graft money with his son, so he's clearly made of Teflon - the effort will probably fall flat.<br />
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This isn't the first time these two parties attempted this kind of cooperation. In this spring's local elections the MHP and CHP coordinated by landing on a consensus candidate to take on the thoroughly corrupt Melih Gokcek in Ankara. Gokcek's mastery of patronage and populism has made him nearly invincible here. Despite the fact that he's clearly made hundreds of millions in graft and his city services are abysmal, he's developed an electoral base that no other individual or party can even begin to match. The consensus candidate in that contest was the mayor of Beypazari, Mansur Yavas (an outlying district in the Ankara municipality). Coincidentally, he <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/chps-ankara-contender-mansur-yavas-signals-candidacy-for-presidential-elections.aspx?pageID=238&nID=67254&NewsCatID=338" target="_blank">floated his name</a> a few weeks ago as an invisible primary candidate for the presidency. Until the 2014 election, he was a member of the neo-fascist MHP, though for the mayoral election he ran under the six arrows of the CHP banner. Pretty simple strategy they took: grab a fascist, slap a Kemalist label on him, hope they can bank on CHP brand loyalty in that corner of the electorate and that enough nationalist voters are willing to accept the compromise. It nearly worked. While there were widespread accusations of fraud, and an incident where a <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/turkey-cat-blamed-ankara-election-night-power-blackouts-1442881" target="_blank">cat</a> apparently caused a blackout disrupting the counting of ballots, the CHP lost by a slim margin. But still, the Ankara mayoral election gave both parties a glimmer of hope, yet showed just how touchy this triangulation on consensus candidates between these two parties can be. </div>
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That touchiness goes double for the presidential election. You honestly can't fault the opposition parties too much for this odd behavior and ultimate compromise. Despite them sharing a lot in terms of ideology (xenophobia, economic statism, hyper-nationalism, and a religious attachment to Ataturk), there's a lot working against effective cooperation between the MHP and CHP. Chief amongst those is the fact they hate each other in nearly absolute terms. There's literally been too much blood spilled between these two camps over the years, particularly in the time preceding the 1980 coup. That kind of hatred just doesn't evaporate in a few decades as their political identities were literally forged in that conflict and some rather important ethnic-religious dynamics that have been at play between these parties for years.</div>
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But more important than those factors, is that all of this is a rather weird learning process for the parties and electorate. There's a real paradox at play here: How can Turkey popularly select a constitutionally non-partisan office, whose historical purpose has been to protect the interests of the state elite from the people themselves? Compounding this paradox is the stark reality that Turkey has been wrestling with a changing of its state elite. While I clearly don't have the answer to this, I do know this is a highly consequential power play at a time of heightened social and political tensions.</div>
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The stakes are high as there is considerable ambiguity in the constitutional and legal structures defining presidential powers. Up until the presidency of Abdullah Gul, presidents were always representative of the Kemalist establishment and exercised their powers sparingly with deference to the bureaucratic-military elite. President Gul, despite the hoopla during his election has also exercised restraint, though his deference has been more towards the AKP and Erdogan. However, as several Turkish professors of politics and law have explained to me in my conversations over the past few weeks here in Ankara, there is great potential for presidential power to grow because throughout the constitution (and supporting law), the president is referred to as head of state, but doesn't have his powers neatly defined. Given these ambiguities, there's no doubt that Erdogan will push those potential powers beyond the pale resulting in de facto<i> </i>constitutional changes that will surely bring more conflict. </div>
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The sad part of the constitutional struggle is that there's widespread consensus that the present constitution, particularly the division of executive authority, is in desperate need of change. But there's absolutely no trust between the parties to even begin a productive conversation. Until there is some semblance of consensus, Turkey will have to settle for these strange fits and starts of constitutional evolution. As for the election of 2014, it is anyone's guess how the electorate will respond to the various candidates and how that power will be exercised by the eventual winner. For me, I just find it fascinating that despite the stark differences between our systems, there are some marked similarities in the invisible primaries in both nations. This undoubtedly speaks to the explanatory power the underlies our understanding of the invisible primary.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-60121939959740774222014-05-30T09:40:00.000-05:002014-05-30T09:40:18.915-05:00Invisible Primary Ala Turca<div class="MsoNormal">
Once again I am exercising my power as this blog’s macdaddy
to go off topic and discuss some pressing matters in Turkish politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To say that Turkish politics is going through
an interesting time is clearly an understatement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only has Turkey recently embarked on a
disturbing reversion from solidly illiberal to near authoritarian governance,
they are wrestling with fundamental constitutional changes of selecting their president and the authority of the office.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most charitable
characterization of the care in which these changes have taken would be
reckless abandon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we need to back up
for one moment to contextualize the changes in post-1980 environment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The republic president is an office that carries mostly
ceremonial powers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he is
technically the commander in chief of the armed forces and carries a veto power
over the parliament, military autonomy ensures that he exercises no real power
over military affairs and parliament can override a veto with procedures no
more difficult than a majority vote or two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Formerly, the president of the Republic was chosen in a series of votes
taken in parliament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Generally, the high
numbers of parties in parliament and the deference (read sycophantic
capitulation) MPs would show to the military, ensured that the president would
have relatively broad support amongst MPs and be properly vetted by the TSK
(central military command).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until 2007,
this worked swimmingly for the TSK, as you’d expect it would given that they
wrote the constitution themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
is until the rise of the AKP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a
result of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_2002" target="_blank">2002 election</a>, the AKP had a solid majority in the parliament,
the first government in a generation that didn’t require a crazy quilt of
coalition for a confidence vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2007, Turkey stepped as close as it had to a military
coup as it had since 1997’s “post modern coup” where PM Erbakan resigned just
as tanks began to roll out of the barracks in Ankara’s suburb of Sincan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just to give you sense of the military
posture in Ankara, it’s a surrounded by military bases, with tens of thousands
of troops (not just TSK bureaucrats) permanently stationed therein.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A very visible reminder close to my old home
near Umitkoy, was a tank on permanent display next to the freeway with it’s
barrel pointed directly at the parliament building, a symbolic cue proudly
displayed with the subtlety of a sledgehammer (and yes, I checked the line on
Google Earth).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I digress.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The constitutional crisis centered around PM
Erdogan’s nomination of then foreign minister Abdulah Gul.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Erdogan had the audacity to appoint Gul
without vetting him through the military or the political opposition, as his
majority in parliament was sufficient to carry the vote without any other
support in the later rounds of balloting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despite following the military’s constitution to the letter, the
Kemalist establishment was furious, demanding that a new election be called
before the president be chosen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rumor
has it, that a meeting of the national security council had been held
discussing the possibility of a coup (a right they reserved for themselves in
the constitution, ain’t that peachy) and that every force commander wanted to
pull the trigger, save the chairman Yasar Buyukanit, who ordered a “wait an
see” posture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Long story short, the coup
was avoided, a parliamentary election was held with the AKP taking a larger
share of the vote, and Abdullah Gul became president with as clear of a mandate
from electorate as possible and the tacit ascent of the MHP.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To avoid this sort of nonsense in the future, the AKP
forwarded a national referendum to amend the presidential selection system by
throwing the decision to popular vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Well the geniuses in the AKP elite didn’t really think out a few obvious
contingencies that even foreigners like me were asking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Along with the popular vote, the single 7
year term of president was shortened to 5 years, with the possibility of a
single reelection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But how would this
apply to President Gul?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Must he abide by
the old term?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was he eligible to seek reelection?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one had answers until the constitutional
court chimed in, basically pulling a ruling out of the air.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fairness, they had to this time, as they had no
guidance whatsoever in the constitution, the amendment, or the law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another lingering question is the partisan
nature of the office.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Formally, the
office is non-partisan. Though the nominations are made with the support
of a given number of MPs and then a series of parliamentary votes chose the
winner, once the person took office, they would eschew their former political ties, rise above petty squabbling, and focus on being a figure of unity in a highly fragmented political system. With a half dozen or so parties in any given parliament, a multi-party consensus (albeit militarily facilitated) had to be reached. Not so anymore with the decision made by the electorate and MPs free to nominate whomever they wish. While Gul has done this far better than most
had predicted in that he's not been as overtly partisan ad some had feared, the question remains for future holders of the office: <i>Can</i> a future president rise above the fray
now that they’re popularly elected in a ridiculously polarized system? Smart money would suggest no. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With Gul’s term coming to an end, and an election looming,
Turkey is again at a crossroads.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who
will be the candidates?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What role are
the parties going to play?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What other
changes are in store for the office?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the question of who, this is still an open question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Erdogan is clearly in the running.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the office not carrying much power at
the moment, it still is an office of high prestige, and this schnook’s all
about showiness and prestige (the tackier and cheaper, the better).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, he’s got designs on transforming the
constitutional powers of the office. Given his personality and nihilistic political ethic, he might not
wait for the formalities of constitutional amendment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he and his supporters would tell you
he’s aiming for a French style semi-presidential system, the reality’s
certainly far darker.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>He’s already got
more relative power than the French President does</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At best, we’d see a Russian model of weak institution with the locus of power being where the boss wants it, or possibly the Hugo Chavez model of hard
fisted, slash and burn kleptocracy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
rightly sends shivers up and down the spines of everyone in the various
opposition parties, or those with any liberal democratic sensibilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This puts the opposition parties in a
conundrum and the structural incentives of the new presidential selection
system is pushing them towards (wait for it…) a non-partisan invisible
primary!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well shit fire, who’d a thunk
that?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Normally the main parties of the opposition are farcical,
and I don’t think this is contained to the AKP era.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their irresponsibility is probably due in
large part to both the crazy
assed coalitions of the 90s and the absolute majoritarian nature of governance. Apologies
for the language, but that is the only way I can describe it. What else would you label a government
composed of conservative, fascist, and socialist parties (well, socialist for
Turkey) as they had in the wake of the 1999 elections? Other coalitions weren’t much prettier. How does an opposition even begin to oppose
such governments? Near as I can tell,
throw rocks at whatever it does, and hope you hit a soft spot on occasion
forcing a confidence vote or early election.
Not a particularly strong model for electorally responsible parties.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As to the absolute majoritarian bit, this is another curse
of Turkish illiberal democracy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In days
past, when coalitions were necessary for confidence votes, coalition partners
were hardly partners in any sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They’d simply divi up the ministries as per negotiated terms and
exercise exclusively within their domains, each party using the ministries’
budgets like ATMs and dolling out the positions to their peeps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even communication was difficult between
ministries of different parties, as several foreign NGOs discovered in the relief
efforts of the 1999 earthquake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What
kept graft somewhat in check was the fact that not a single party controlled
the whole pie, and that there was a constant churning of governments preventing
any one party from controlling too much, for too long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The advantage of that natural check on
corruption came at the cost of good governance and stability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When politics is simply a zero-sum game to
control patronage, neither those in government or opposition are particularly
incented to create viable, programmatic platforms to present to the
voters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But again I digress.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the current AKP era, opposition has been limited to two
parties: the CHP and the MHP (yes, there is a Kurdish party, though my heart is
with them, their marginalization is so severe that they can hardly be
considered a “normal” opposition party as they stand alone in this).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both parties are caught in a trap of trying
desperately to maintain their bases, which by necessity limits their
programmatic appeals to the broader electorate.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The CHP is a nationalist party that waves the Ataturk flag
most briskly of the lot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the fact that it
quite literally <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">isn’t</i> the party
Ataturk founded (that party was closed with all the others in 1980), the “new CHP”
founder Deniz Baykal successfully claimed their label and substantial financial
assets in the early 1990s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An old expat
friend of mine from my Ankara days, referred to them as “sad old
Kemalists.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though a bit of
generalization as there are some young folks in the party, it’s not that far
off psychologically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The base of the
party is largely the same today as it was throughout the first six or so
decades of the Republican era: people who are part of the military-bureaucratic
elite or the primary beneficiaries thereof.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Though Baykal is now out, brought down in a sex scandal a few years ago,
the current leadership follows the standard Turkish model of cadre parties
where power is highly centralized, intraparty democracy is non-existent, and
order is maintained through highly personalized networks within the party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The closest the CHP comes to a political
platform these days is a collective mourning of their lost privileges of old
and rather nondescript appeals to secularism that generally comes out as
rather course anti-religious rhetoric.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The MHP is in no better shape.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The MHP is a neo-fascist party that picked up
on a thread of racial identity politics that emerged, gee wiz, in the 1930s and 40s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Turkish identity has always been rather
nebulous, but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think it’s safe to say that
most Turks take a rather benign definition of it, framed in Ataturk’s often
cited “Ne mutlu T<span lang="TR" style="mso-ansi-language: TR;">ürküm </span>diyene.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Roughly translated: How happy is one who
calls oneself a Turk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Ersin
Kalaygioglu puts it, if you say you’re a Turk, you’re a Turk!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can dig that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not so the MHP. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ve long exhibited the key traits of a
true fascist party: ultra-nationalism, wrapped up in a biologically determined
identity, a rejection of liberal individuality, voracious xenophobia, proclivity towards violence, glorification of
an imagined history, ideally reinforced by a heavy handed state.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While their current leader Devlet Bahceli says reasonable sounding things from time to time
regarding the abuses of power by the AKP, never forget Bahceli came to power in
the party and maintains his power in the party by the naked use of force.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thankfully the electoral base of this party is
a bit smaller than the CHP’s, but it usually wins enough votes to break the ten
percent threshold making it a persistent player.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their politics are what you’d expect from a
fascist party – repugnant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While they’ve
gone through some window dressing in attempts to mainstream themselves for
broader appeal (with a degree of success), their core fascistic values remain intact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Straying too far from them has proved
risky in the past, and they’re unlikely to stray too much in the future
(they’ve made some consensus to Islamist elements in years past, which pushed
out some hard core identifiers, but that’s another story).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, what now?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both of
these parties are undoubtedly going through an internal invisible primary right now to
forward some names to the Turkish people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I don’t rightly care about that, since they’ll lose.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the invisible primary is all about
triangulating on viable candidates, which often means going with a number two
choice, here’s my advice to both the CHP and MHP: Go with Gul.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That’s right, I said it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Go with Gul.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I say that not for their sakes, but the sake of Turkish democracy. Here’s why…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the current political landscape both the opposition
parties are sure losers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t care
who they nominate, the Turkish electorate will not go for another CHP hack moaning
about how hard it is to be a White Turk these days, or an MHP blowhard doing his
fascist thing, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">nor should they</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should both these parties nominate their
stereotypical selves, hello President Erdogan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Gul has a genuine shot here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His
presidency has been unremarkable, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">which a
Turkish presidency ought to be</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>While he’s taken heat for giving ascent to some repugnant AKP
legislation, his veto would have been
superfluous in the end as the parliament would just override it on majority
vote. Is he in my ideological camp? Of course not, none of these people are. But in democratic, electoral politics you play the cards you’re dealt.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Is such a marriage easy?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>No.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hell no!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite inhabiting a lot of similar
ideological space (statism, nationalism, xenophobia), it goes against the
virtual DNA of both the MHP and CHP to work together given their history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are nearly as harsh of one another as
they are of the AKP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if Bulent
Ecevit could hammer out a coalition deal with his DSP and the MHP, there’s
always that possibility (the DSP inhabited identical ideological
space as the CHP does, just with a different leader, did I mention parties were personalized in
Turkey?).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though the result of that government was
clear disaster, negotiating and governing with that coalition was a far taller
order than agreeing on a candidate for a largely ceremonial position.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of which is nothing to say of the
difficult pill to be swallowed by the CHP and MHP agreeing to endorse Gul individually.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s the most prominent face of the AKP save
Erdogan himself, and his very nomination to president was the cause of the 2007
crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But recall, that it was the MHP that facilitated Gul's election in 2007, by attending a quorum call (a quorum that the constitutional court pulled out it's ass in its absurd annulment of the first attempt at Gul's election). <o:p></o:p>Not an easy pill to swallow at all; but necessary. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Though I hate false dichotomies for the sake of rhetorical
leverage, the way I see it, the opposition in Turkey has two options: nominate you own candidates to face Tayyip, get your ass handed to you in the election, and hold on for
whatever grand, looney, and destructive ideas he’s got in store for the office
and the nation. Or, go with Gul. You have a known quantity who’s probably
not going to recklessly blow holes in the constitutional order to immortalize
himself as the greatest statesman that ever ruled, anywhere, anytime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Are these good options? Not really, but again, play the cards you are dealt. Gul might be an ace in the hole.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Make no mistake, I’ve got clear baggage in this. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think the current constitution is rotten to
the core.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Militaries suck at
constitution writing; period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Additionally, my disdain for all the main political parties ranges from strong to
absolute, as liberal democratic values aren’t embraced by any of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we must grasp at whatever shreds of
democracy we can to prevent Turkish democracy from backsliding into genuine
authoritarianism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For all its faults,
the present constitution is probably better than whatever Erdogan has in mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And though Gul and I share little in
political values, he clearly doesn’t have the messianic hubris that Erdogan
displays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should an Erdogan-Gul contest
be held, it’s anyone’s guess as to the result as I’ve seen no polling on it;
but I like those odds far better than an assured Erdogan win which the CHP and
MHP will hand deliver if they insist on nominating their own candidates for the
presidency. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Who knows, perhaps Erdogan getting spanked by Gul would signal the end of his career. If only we could be so lucky.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-14488179180149463042014-05-16T13:20:00.001-05:002014-05-16T13:24:34.331-05:00Don't Hate the Player, Hate the Game<div class="MsoNormal">
Just a quick post here as I’m in Ankara trying to catch my
breath after the flurry of activity at semester’s end. Hopefully in a week’s time
I’ll be doing some real writing as I watch the Aegean Sea slowly pass by Didim…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Assuming Tayyip doesn’t block blogspot in the next few
minutes (I’m not kidding folks), I felt the need to expand on an interesting
post <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2014/05/are-super-wealthy-buying-democracy.html" target="_blank">Seth Masket</a> had today over at Mischiefs of Factions, where he presented a wonderful graph
courtesy of Poole, Rosenthal, McCarty, and Bonica.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Masket rightly describes the situation
described here as a conundrum, we know the super-rich are underwriting a
greater and greater proportion of campaign costs and that as a class most
everyone of the big donors fit <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">between</i>
the party medians within congress, so it appears that they aren’t getting
everything that they pay for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even the
“evil” David Koch inhabits this middle ground, though his brother Charles is
barely to right of the median point (clearly making him the evil brother).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This makes intuitive sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All these super-rich players are true intense
policy demanders; they have real policy goals that they don’t want to see
cocked up by extremist policy makers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This echoes some research Ray La Raja and I did a couple years back in<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> <a href="http://apr.sagepub.com/content/40/3/501.short?patientinform-links=yes&legid=spapr;40/3/501" target="_blank">APR</a></i> where we found that campaign
contributors aren’t the polarizing force in American politics that many assume
them to be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Using ANES data back to
1972, we concluded that politicians aren’t particularly responsive to
ideologically extreme donors as they are strategic in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">mobilizing</i> ideologues in pursuit of financial resources towards
electoral goals.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FxsCMAxOAQ0/U3ZXzpV5YFI/AAAAAAAAADQ/TbT2VhMSthg/s1600/poole+donor+distributions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FxsCMAxOAQ0/U3ZXzpV5YFI/AAAAAAAAADQ/TbT2VhMSthg/s1600/poole+donor+distributions.png" height="483" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Broadly speaking, political scientists are a rather skeptical
lot when it comes to campaign finance reform (at least for those of us who
study it closely).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Especially
frustrating to us are the repeated calls towards reforms that we know would be
counter productive based on the empirical work we are intimately familiar
with.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The campaign finance reform
quarters, quite frankly, are lousy with terrible ideas that would only serve to
exacerbate serious problems in American politics today. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Exhibit A, polarization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since our piece, more recent studies have shed
light on the role of mega donors, largely because of innovations in the
estimation of their ideal points. I’d go so far as to say that there is growing support that large donors are acting as a moderating force, a possibility that Ray and I looked for, but couldn't find given data limitations. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We also suspected
that there is the potential for small donors to be a polarizing force should
some short term trends continue. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Poole
et al’s graph here seems to give us some real empirical evidence to support
that idea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One persistent call of the reform movement is for some
kind of structural support to encourage and/or subsidize small donors
through matching funds, clean election laws, and the like.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While there is a nice, democratic, and
altruistic ring to the term "small donor," we should proceed with caution, as populistic
impulses rarely have positive outcomes when they are enacted into law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As of now, whatever polarizing effects small
donors have on our policy makers are probably being counter-balanced
by larger donors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Amplifying the polarizing voices by juking the system in their favor
might only serve to drive the parties farther apart from one another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While I’m generally not an alarmist when it
comes to polarization, I’d say we’ve got enough of it right now as it is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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And yes, this has some relevance to the invisible primary. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While fundraising is but a part of the game,
it is of real significance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is also
one that is in constant flux due to the shifting legal sands that our finance
regime is based upon and the adaptability of the players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there’s one constant in the history of
campaign finance, it’s unintended consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Virtually every goal of reformers is thwarted in an election cycle or
two, and the “problems” they were trying to address wind up being <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/05/12/fixing-campaign-finance-is-only-making-it-worse/" target="_blank">more entrenched and acute</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should
legislation have the unintended consequences of enhancing the voices of the
most ideological extreme portions of the financial constituency, the
triangulation of party actors in the invisible primary will undoubtedly be affected.<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-80470791847934603132014-04-22T13:47:00.001-05:002014-04-22T13:47:26.105-05:00Highly Visible Women<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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As we hobble into Spring, all eyes are on 2016 – when these
eyes really should be on the summer months. Maybe it was the extended-dance-mix
winter we had that just. kept. going. Or maybe it was something in the ether
that made people act strangely (because folks were acting pretty damned inexplicable
this year). But I think mayhaps we have forgotten that summer even exists
because it seems that instead of looking to the 2014 midterms as a harbinger of
something interesting, everyone is skipping that part and getting to the Show. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this Show smells like talcum powder.</div>
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Yes, Hillary Clinton is going to be a grandmother. Mollusks!
<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chelsea-clinton-im-pregnant/story?id=23369558">Chelsea Clinton is preggers</a> which means that if Hillary runs for president and
is elected, she will be the first First Lady to be POTUS, the first woman to be
leader of the free world, and the first Bubbe to have her finger on the button.
A tip of the hat to those who grew tired of the “she’s a girl!” narrative –
this is definitely something new to prattle on about. No less than David
Gregory on Meet the Press <a href="http://jezebel.com/meet-the-press-ponders-whether-a-grandma-can-run-for-pr-1565550151">addressed this obviously essential new development,</a>
because with few other unfolding developments in the 2016 race one should clearly
watch the development of Chelsea’s uterus instead. My all-time favorite thing,
maybe ever, is the claim by a few on the Right that somehow Hillary somehow
<a href="http://www.mediaite.com/online/right-wing-host-thinks-chelsea-clinton-may-have-staged-pregnancy-to-help-hillary/">staged the pregnancy.</a> As if murdering Vince Foster, covering up Benghazi, and faux-ducking
shoes wasn’t enough – she Gerry rigged a gestation. I get what they’re saying: Hillary
is good. So good, she should be president. </div>
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Wait. That’s not what they’re saying.</div>
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Moving on, the other gal in the IP mix these days is
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren who is about to release a book memoir
called “A Fighting Chance.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is such
a classic IP move that the HBO show “Veep” has <a href="http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2014/04/veep-review-some-new-beginnings.html">already mocked it </a>with the lead
character releasing a book called “<i>Some New Beginnings: Our Next American
Journey</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">” prior to her own run for
president. (By the way: One of the show characters ridiculed the “<i>New Beginnings”
</i>title by saying “It’s so full of shit there’s a colon in the middle of it.”
Ha!) But what the fake candidate and the possibly real candidate have in common
is a book tour which gives candidates fake and real plenty of face time with the
media and the American public. This, of course, is why you release a book. But
despite<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/elizabeth-warren-2016-elections-poll-105338.html"> Politico calling her “hot,”</a> (only in Washington, friends) Warren <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/21/elizabeth-warren-2016_n_5187672.html?utm_hp_ref=politics">swearsshe’s not running.</a> Okey dokey. I’m certain a release of “A Fighting Chance” has
nothing to do with running for higher office. Nothing at all. </span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">What all of this
means for IP watching is that – just maybe – women’s issues will be central I the
2016 presidential race. Or maybe we will be distracted by the super cute, teeny
tiny socks that Chelsea & Marc’s bundle of joy will wear. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given the seriousness of the news media, it’s
an even bet either way, but one can always hope. </span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-85845487932435157762014-03-30T11:24:00.000-05:002014-03-30T11:24:27.345-05:00How to Report the Invisible PrimaryThus far in the invisible primary of 2016 we've seen plenty of terrible reporting from all quarters of the press that are frankly too numerous to count, much less link up here. However, there's some really good stuff going on out there. For my money, Robert Costa of the Washington Post is quickly establishing himself as my personal favorite, as his coverage has really focused on what matters in things invisible primary. A hallmark of the junk tends to be heavy on the various match ups for 2016 or even worse, the results of horrifically unrepresentative straw polls such as what we saw coming out of CPAC several weeks ago. Not so for Costa...<div>
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Whilst multitasking between Fareed Zakaria, watching the T20 cricket championship (Australia, what are you doing?), and scanning headlines, I ran into this <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/influential-republicans-working-to-draft-jeb-bush-into-2016-presidential-race/2014/03/29/11e33b06-b5f2-11e3-8cb6-284052554d74_story.html?hpid=z1" target="_blank">article</a> by Costa and his colleague Phillip Rucker. Kudos to them both. </div>
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Let's set aside Jeb Bush's chances for winning the nomination for the moment, and focus on the coverage itself, as this is good stuff from the perspective of political scientists. They quite literally are covering all the bases that matter. First, they recognize that this isn't just a matter of a candidate trolling for support within the various parts of the party establishment, but the various parts of the party establishment actively vetting a candidate, or as they put it a "draft" is underway. Second, they recognize the players here are a diverse network and are deeply concerned about both policy and the political feasibility of the noisiest candidate of the moment, Senator Rand Paul. Third, they hit the importance of money at this point, and not just ability of Bush stuff his own coffers, but as I've noted <a href="http://invisibleprimary.blogspot.com/2013/07/coffee-house-guy-money-primary-and_2.html" target="_blank">before</a>, make it rain for other Republicans across the country. Fourth, they have a nice discussion on the strengths and weaknesses Bush brings to the table and how they will play to the various factions of the party. If reporting the invisible primary was a four-banger of a motor, they'd be firing on all cylinders.</div>
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And here's where I really appreciate their work and where they separate themselves even more from most of their competition: While they eventually get around to some poll numbers and the (possible) issue of "Bush fatigue," it's at the tail end of the article and well embedded in a nuanced discussion of the factors that matter. And they're not referencing some idiotic "Jeb vs. Hillary" face-off that litters most coverage at this point, but focusing on factors unique to Gov. Bush. When we cannot even begin predict what the fundamentals of the 2016 contest will be, those sorts of head to head polls are superfluous. </div>
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Overall, nicely done gentlemen! I for one, will be following both these people's work rather carefully, as should you all.</div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-13803490972830264812014-03-18T11:14:00.000-05:002014-03-19T14:38:02.383-05:00Modeling the Endorsement DecisionFor political scientists, March means one thing: conference season! Though the macdaddy of conferences is labor day weekend, the ones I always look forward to the most (for a variety of reasons) are the MPSA and WPSA. Even though I was crushed that I cannot attend the midwest this year (regional Model UN conferences... sigh), I'm in that sweet spot of a project where I'm furiously working on the models for my latest offering for the western. It's really rough at this stage, mind you, and will need a significant amount of work in the coming months, but thus far it has some mildly interesting findings that are all about the invisible primary.<br />
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<br /></div>
<div>
Back in late 2011 whilst still at Briar Cliff in Iowa, I was struck by what I thought was an invisible primary oddity. Rep. Steve King took some time off blaming undocumented Hispanics for all of the nation's ills and expanding upon Todd Akin's legitimate rape comments, to rub elbows with a few of the <a href="http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2012/01/03/michele-bachmann-stands-with-steve-king-on-caucus-morning-delivers-final-closing-argument/" target="_blank">presidential</a> <a href="http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/10/22/rick-perry-hunts-in-rural-iowa/rick-perry-steve-king/" target="_blank">contenders</a>; or perhaps more accurately, they interrupted his demagoguery to cozy up to him. The prize being a coveted endorsement from an incumbent Iowan representative. As we know, the success of an invisible primary candidacy can be predicted rather well by the number of endorsements they accrue in the pre-primary process. What struck me as particularly odd about this case was that King never gave anyone the nod, despite the high profile hobnobbing. Which begged a question of "why?" As I puzzled over his decision not to endorse, I began thinking in broader terms: what factors out there can we associate with this decision? What is it that drives this important behavior? Luckily, the clever minds behind <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo5921600.html" target="_blank">The Party Decides</a> have a nifty data base of endorsements that can give a digital ream or two of information necessary to model this decision. With the help of an undergraduate research monkey, I began to append some vital bits of data to every Representative and Senator in the 2000 presidential election cycle to build a logit model or two.</div>
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Though it's taken some time, thought, and rethinking, I'm beginning to see some results. For those of you who wince at the sight of Stata outputs and the like, kindly avert your eyes and skip down the post a ways. I modeled each party separately, as I reckoned there may be some differences between them. The key independent variables are (in order presented): what week the presidential primary/caucus is in the MC's home state, state level presidential margin in 2000, the same margin squared, the electoral margin in the MC's last election, that margin squared, David Mayhew's <a href="http://politicalscience.yale.edu/publications/placing-parties-american-politics-organization-electoral-settings-and-government" target="_blank">state party culture</a> (regular organization as reference), DW-NOMINATE dimensions 1 and 2 (common space, as I intend to go time series soon), years in office, age, and age squared. The d.v. is a simple 0,1; no endorsement, endorsement. Please forgive the cumbersome variable names. Though they probably make no damn sense to you, they do to me, and that's what counts at this stage! </div>
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Here are the Democrats:</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3SefVpYz92s/UydqUPLAdDI/AAAAAAAAACw/Ym6hPEcL6LE/s1600/Dems.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3SefVpYz92s/UydqUPLAdDI/AAAAAAAAACw/Ym6hPEcL6LE/s1600/Dems.jpg" /></a></div>
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And the Republicans:<br />
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As you can see there aren't any earth shattering results, but there are some interesting contrasts. My suspicion that Democrats and Republicans approach the endorsement decision differently is seemingly supported. Briefly, Republicans seem more sensitive to state level electoral factors (as expressed in an interesting quadratic relationship to the presidential election margin in their home state) and Democrats to the electoral calendar and the enigmatic 2nd dimension of DW-NOMINATE. Some noteworthy, but non-statistically significant associations are found with Republicans and ideology (both dimensions); and for Democrats, the years served in office and a quadratic effect of age. Both parties were sensitive to party culture, though in slightly different ways. And if you're wondering, I did suspect the possibility of non-linear relationships in each of these variables before I even opened Stata on this project. </div>
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So what does all this mean? Apart from the little story told above that I'll be hashing through and thickening in the next few weeks, I'm not 100% sure at this stage. Clearly Democratic and Republican MCs see the decision to endorse, at least in 2000, in quite different terms, some of which may speak towards the invisible primary process. However, as the results suggest, this model is far from complete. What could be missing from this mix of variables? I'm also a bit perplexed by the direction of the relationship between 2nd dimension of DW-NOMINATE and the d.v. As Keith Poole has written on <a href="http://voteview.com/blog/?p=775" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="http://voteview.com/blog/?p=918" target="_blank">occasions</a>, the 2nd dimension <i>might</i> be reflecting an insider-outsider dimension within the parties, as the more mavericky/Tea Party types tend to score on the negative side of things. This was why I included the 2nd dimension in the first instance. Presumably those on the inside would be more likely to engage in this critical party conversation than outsiders looking in. While it might not be the perfect measure of this inside-out split, it's a convenient proxy. Yet for some reason, that initial sense I had appears to be back asswards. Higher 2nd dimension scores (the more "inside" an MC is), are associated with a lower likelihood of endorsing amongst Democrats, and possibly Republicans as well. I suspect that it's acting as a proxy for a yet-to-be-accounted-for variable.</div>
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So in the spirit of our age and latest trends of the interwebs, I've decided to try my hand in a bit of crowd sourcing on these two key questions:</div>
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1) Are there any obvious omissions that come to your mind? I'm all for clean, short, and sweet models, but glaring omissions need to be attended to...</div>
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2) What's with the 2nd dimension of DW-NOMINATE here? Assuming this is a good measurement of "inside-outside" status, I suppose one could hypothesize that "outsiders" due to their outsider position, might feel more compelled to interject into the party conversation with an endorsement than a real insider. Frankly, I'm not too happy with that line of reasoning. Something is clearly going on here, but I'm not convinced I'm on to it just yet.</div>
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So crowd, get to it. Any productive discussion is warmly welcomed and appreciated. Moreover, I hope to see many of you in Seattle!<br />
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Day After Addendum: a technical note you should be aware of is that the dependent variable is an endorsement during the <b>pre-primary</b> period, prior to the Iowa caucuses. As you may know, most every MC eventually makes an endorsement at some point, but often it's after the nomination's all but sewn up. This is especially true of Democrats whose role as super delegates in the convention gives them a slightly different incentive structure in the endorsement decision. One of a few reasons I model the parties separately.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-83377994480737063392014-02-13T09:21:00.002-06:002014-02-13T09:21:58.528-06:00Too Much BushGOTCHA! If the title lured you to read this in the hopes of something saucy I apologize. I couldn't resist trying to sex it up because we are snowed in here in Pennsylvania and I'm bored. I'll try to add something salacious to the always hot topic of the Invisible Primary.... but even I may not be that talented.<br />
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The "Bush," I reference, of course, would be Jeb. Son of 41, brother of 43, and if <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/25401514-452/christies-fall-gives-jeb-bush-wings.html">the chattering class has anything to say about it</a>, number 45 himself. A nice article from Larry Sabato gives some of the <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-presidential-ratings-update-nothing-but-questions-on-the-republican-side/">most recent 2016 rankings on the GOP side </a>and puts Jeb as a "wild card" which to me takes a verrrry broad use of the word "wild." A Bush running for president you say? How novel. And using a man named "Jeb" in the same sentence as "wild" just conjures up images of some rollicking country club party where someone nicknamed "Trip" had one too many G & Ts and drove a golf cart into the sandtrap (clutch the pearls!). And it's not so wild to think that he's running since the guy has checked all of the IP marks (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/us/politics/jeb-bush-sells-immigration-book-and-faces-critics.html?_r=0">wrote a book</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEMQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtontimes.com%2Fnews%2F2013%2Fmar%2F16%2Fcpac-2013-jeb-bush-calls-more-inclusive-republican%2F&ei=M9j8Uo0pqJvKAaeNgJAG&usg=AFQjCNFBZ4FYJR2Nj25smUoIybpZQsDaoQ&sig2=MYBrAQaBhewsfddINU_Mlw&bvm=bv.61190604,d.aWc">gave some big platform speeches</a>) and he's got the name recognition to raise some serious cash. I was actually going to insert some prurient language here about Bush's thick hair and the heat in Florida but I will restrain myself because this is clearly a high-brow blog. Don't say I didn't try. <br />
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Anyway, it's the Christie/ GWB kerfuffle that is causing all of the Bush speculation (Go ahead - insert "speculating for Bush" joke here please), because serious people (that's YOU Sus Paley!) have wondered whether Christie can come back from <i>le scandal. </i>I doubt it: His narrative frame has changed and that's never good. People see him as a petty tyrant (as opposed to a tyrant with a purpose which is fine, really). And the world's best comedians have had a field day mocking the crap out of him (the best of which is right <a href="http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/bruce-springsteen-and-jimmy-fallon-gov-christie-traffic-jam-born-to-run-parody/n45079/">HERE</a>. And you are welcome). To quote the scholar Ke$ha: "He's going down. I'm yelling timber."<br />
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Which leaves a big hole for the GOP to fill and very<a href="http://www.salon.com/2014/01/23/gops_deep_bench_for_2016_is_now_in_splinters/"> few people on the Republican bench</a> who can fill it. Bush is wise to keep quiet, because look at what happened to Christie when his star started to burn really brightly? The inevitable backlash against a winner bit him in the tuchas. This is what most concerns those on Team Clinton: <a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2014_02/hillary_and_the_inevitability048926.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+washingtonmonthly/rss+%28Political+Animal+at+Washington+Monthly%29">Don't use the "I" word </a>(Which is "inevitable." And certainly don't use "I" in the word "Team" because we all know there is no "I" in "Team." Sheesh) because that inevitability thing helped to tank the HRC campaign in 2008. You become an assumption and two things happens: a) The <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/11/12/hillary-fatigue-in-2013/">media takes you for granted</a>; and b) <a href="http://nypost.com/2014/01/07/hillary-2016-not-so-inevitable/">The backlash begins.</a><br />
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So there is reason for Jeb to lay low as long as possible, plus there is the truism that three Bushes may be one too many (some would argue three too many, but I'll leave that to the partisans). The possibility of another Bush-Clinton match is at one time alluring because we can pretend it is 1992 again (and that was a super fun year - am I right?). And yet, maybe former First Lady Barbara Bush was right when she said that the nation has "<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/25/barbara-bush-jeb-bush-president_n_3154029.html">had enough Bushes</a>." Let me add to that, mayhaps, the possibility that we've had enough Clintons and Pauls too. Just a thought. <br />
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And speaking of people named Paul. there is more to say about Rand Paul and his completely absurd conversation about Hillary, Bill Clinton, and Monica Lewisnky but I will let <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/02/rand-paul-hillary-could-be-derailed-by-little-known-lewinsky-affair.html">Andy Borowitz take that from here</a>.<br />
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I would like to start a snow day contest for the best Bush-IP-sex joke. We're stuck inside - might as well make it interesting. Winner gets a "Ship Happens" tee shirt or I buy them a drink at the Midwest Political Science Association meeting in April. Ready? Set? GO!<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-75685320181834100722014-01-25T14:09:00.003-06:002014-01-25T14:09:57.455-06:00More GOP Rule Changes in StoreOnce again, I've been beaten to the punch on things invisible primary, but Fridays are filled with classes and cricket (I'm proud to be the Bob Uecker of the SDSU Cricket Club), so delay was inevitable. In truth, I've been pondering this post since December when details began to emerge about the rule changes the GOP was considering, particularly their plan to compress the nomination calendar. The mulling is now over, and changes have been adopted. Over at Bloomberg, Jonathan Bernstein has an <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/does-changing-2016-primary-calendar-change-the-game-.html" target="_blank">insightful post</a> on the net effects of the rule change on the nomination process.<br />
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Speaking for myself from the perspective of a political scientist, the GOP navel gazing is at once heartening, yet quite frustrating.<br />
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To the former, as someone who spends a great deal of time studying institutions, it nice to see that politicians and party officials recognize that individual behaviors are affected by rules and structures, and that they are trying to harness that behavior in a positive direction. <br />
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What's frustrating is precisely what Bernstein dubs "fighting the last war;" ferreting out what they felt went wrong in the last race and rearranging institutions based on some pretty spurious evidence of what made the election break against them. Could the calendar have mattered in 2012? Highly unlikely. As Bernstein articulates (and as most political scientists would concur) the happenings of the primary season are noticed by only a very small sliver of the population and they're lost in collective memory come November. Assuming that the divisions of the primary season aren't indicative of deep, irreconcilable factionalism - and 2012 wasn't such a case - an extended primary isn't the worst thing that can happen to a party. And frankly, it didn't take an undue amount of time for Republicans to choose Romney in 2012. GOP suspicions in 2012 that the <i>partial</i> move from primarily winner-take-all to a degree of proportionality in delegate allocation in early primary states drew out the nomination fight were effectively shown to be <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/republican-rules-are-not-to-blame-for-primary-war.html" target="_blank">mythological</a> by Josh Putnam and John Sides. GOP navel gazing by the likes of Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, and John McCain was purely speculative, superficially impressionistic, and wildly uninformed with readily available empirical evidence. It seems to me that these rule changes now are due in part to the survival of this myth. What's more important to the party's general election prospects are election fundamentals, and <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8937.html" target="_blank">what candidates can do in their campaigns</a> to make the best of the cards they are dealt. That's what the party ought to be concerning itself with, not so much the timing of primaries and sanctioning states for breaking their rules. It's just not determinative of general election results, or even the results of the nomination fight. Now, if a primary season is extended by an inability of the party to triangulate on an acceptable candidate across factions that is highly problematic, but a compressed calendar isn't going to help, as the party's got far bigger issues to worry about.<br />
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One minor departure that I take from Bernstein's post has some direct relevance to the invisible primary. While he's spot on in noting that "any old crank" can have a good two weeks in the pre-primary period (and if the timing is <strike>right</strike> lucky, in the early primary states ala Santorum), I'm more confident that threshing machine of the invisible primary will effectively separate the wheat from the chaff. So by my reckoning, a compressed calendar won't make much of a difference on nominee quality. While the cranks might stick around for the sake of landing a <a href="http://invisibleprimary.blogspot.com/2013/08/theres-running-and-theres-running.html" target="_blank">book or TV deal</a>, the probability was exceedingly low that the GOP would nominate Bachman, Cain, Santorum, or Gingrich, as each were at the very best factional leaders, and frankly, not particularly serious candidates to begin with. To the extent that proved necessary, Romney had the party behind him before the first vote cast in Iowa. The invisible primary actually threshed out some serious candidates, as it should, like Governors Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry. And though this thought isn't original to me (and for the life of me I cannot remember who had written it) we know they were serious <i>because</i> they dropped out when they recognized nomination was out of their grasp. What was left for Romney to contend with were empty husks of challengers, that more or less blew away in the in the early primary season winds.<br />
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The bottom line for me (like Bernstein) is that neither party should worry too much about the little details of their nomination systems, they just don't matter that much. While wholesale changes we saw in the aftermath of the 1968 election cycle were very consequential (and the parties had to scramble to adapt), it seems to me that monkeying around on the margins carries high opportunity costs. Spend the time, money, and effort on ensuring the chaff is separated from the wheat effectively in the primaries while keeping your party unified, and help nominees carefully choose a general election path that maximizes political return on the fundamentals they have to work with. Should both parties play a larger role throughout the entire electoral process, our democracy will be that much better off.<br />
<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-3020342362001288122014-01-23T14:14:00.001-06:002014-01-24T12:30:41.977-06:00Sometimes It Isn't So InvisibleA quick tip of the toque (it is -5 outside) to Seth Masket for putting his tweeps onto this NYT <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/24/us/politics/biggest-liberal-super-pac-to-fund-possible-clinton-bid.html?hp&_r=1" target="_blank">article</a> a few moments ago. As Masket noted, sometimes the signs of party insiders gravitating towards a candidate are very "subtle" indeed. In this case, with Priorities USA being handed over from President Obama's allies to supporters of Hillary Clinton's likely run, it's as subtle as a sledgehammer. According to Open Secrets, Priorities USA pumped about $65 million into outside spending in 2012, with nearly all of it on negative ads targeting Mitt Romney. While they were outpaced by nearly $100 million by Karl Rove's American Crossroads, we're talking about an organization poised to spend a serious chunk of change come election season. While we're talking big bucks here, the significance of this in regards to the invisible primary, isn't so much the potential funding, but the people lining up in her corner.<br />
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As important as this is, we must remember that in the invisible primary, just as in the general election, money isn't a guarantee of success. As I noted <a href="http://invisibleprimary.blogspot.com/2013/07/coffee-house-guy-money-primary-and_2.html" target="_blank">here</a>, not only is the term "money primary" something I'd like to relegate to the dustbin of the political lexicon (as it tends to conflate two separate processes: one nearly determinative of the nomination outcome, one not at all so), the key financial variable that we need to pay attention to at this stage is the money flowing <i>from</i> the candidates to other political organizations (candidate, committees, and parities), rather than flowing to them. Obviously, the stream of money through outside groups, who in turn spend on behalf of a candidate, has had an imprint on the invisible primary, but just how instrumental of a role it has in securing the actual nomination is yet to be seen. Of course the rules could very well change in any given cycle, but I'm skeptical about declaring that sort of seismic shift in the invisible primary rule book until we see some hard evidence in our 2016 postmortems. <br />
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Regardless, this is a clear sign that many in the Democratic party elite, in this case key operatives and fundraisers, are triangulating on a certain focal point; and boat loads of outside spending certainly won't hurt Clinton's chances. For me, I'm still betting that the real key to Clinton's invisible primary success or failure will be how much money she can direct towards others within the party, just as George W. Bush was doing at this point in the 2000 election cycle. The only real difference as I see it between now and then, is that some of the means of funding and spending have been further refined (yes <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-13/why-campaign-finance-laws-make-things-worse.html" target="_blank">refined</a>) in the intervening 16 years. The same can probably be said for the rules of the Invisible Primary.<br />
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<b>Addendum:</b> I was rereading chapter 8 of <i>The Party Decides</i> this morning for a research project I've just picked up (stay tuned, as it's all about the invisible primary), and a very prescient passage jumped out at me. For those of you that haven't read the book, do so soon. For those who have, recall the analogy the authors use of "the restaurant game" (a large group of people deciding on what type of restaurant to go to) for the various factions of a party triangulating on a candidate. "If fish lovers flock to the fish restaurant, it provides little information to diners who happen not to be fish lovers." (261) That is largely what's happening here. The original NYT article notes, that this is a veritable who's who of the Clinton administration's political team, with a few Obama hangers around thrown in the mix. Obviously the fact that the Obama crew has handed off the structure of Priorities USA is an important development, but we mustn't lose sight of the fact that what we're seeing here is previously loyal Clinton people rallying back to Clinton for this open nomination. Should they cast a wider net, and start bringing in folks from other Democratic factions (beef and porker lovers, and vegans, to press the analogy further), then we've getting somewhere in terms of invisible primary traction.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-88543829142347897792014-01-09T12:13:00.002-06:002014-01-09T12:13:51.936-06:00Screw me? Screw You! The IP Chris Christie Edition<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">There
is much hullabaloo at this moment about IP fave and current NJ Governor Chris
Christie’s political plot to snarl traffic in an attempt to thumb his honker at
the Democrats. Christie has acquired for himself a rather bad-boy reputation as
an aggressive and plain talkin’ politician who sticks it to the<a href="http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chris-christie-asks-idiot-reporter-are-you-stupid-at-press-conference/"> media</a> (bad
media!) and opponents (bad opponents!) and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/wp/2013/11/03/gov-chris-christie-yells-at-a-teacher-again/">teachers </a>(bad – wait. What?). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Christie’s intensity has endeared him to many
on the right who like to use words like “strong” and “powerful” when describing
the kind of take-no-prisoners leader they idealize. You know – the exact opposite
of the wishy-washy equivocating liberal stuff they get from the Democrats.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">But
there’s always the other side of the coin, and while some may admire Christie’s
force others have called him a bully. The kind of bully who yells at people and
leaves them shaking in fear. Which is why the story about the GW Bridge feeds
into the Christie narrative so well, and is such a compelling story to tell
nationwide.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">What
could be seen as a regional spat went global because of Christie’s anointment as
IP front runner for 2016. But it also landed solidly because many people
already think Christie is a tyrant. Whether or not he knew that his underlings closed
lanes of the George Washington Bridge as a political maneuver is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">almost</i> beside the point, because people already
believe he is capable of such scheming. The joke lands because we get it.
Christie’s a bully. We got it. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Also,
there is the question of what kind of office he is running. According to military
experts (meaning: My husband) there is an Army expression called “Command
Climate” which is loosely defined as the environment established by a leader. In
other words: The example set by a boss <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is
important. If Christie’s command climate encouraged or even just allowed such machinating,
that speaks loudly to his leadership and management style. And while voters like
force, they don’t like intrigues, plotting, and manipulations done out of
spite. Ask Richard Nixon – they’ll get you for that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">So
this is why the GW Bridge story has legs and why it matters to the Invisible Primary.
It will be interesting to see how Christie manages the story and what happens
to his front-runner status which has already been codified by <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/12/michael-barbaro-to-cover-christie-180273.html">big press coverage</a>. It will also be interesting to see how the new NY Mayor deals with all
of this, how <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/01/all-lanes-on-george-washington-bridge-blocked-by-chris-christies-ego.html?utm_source=tny&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=borowitz&mbid=nl_Borowitz%20%2816%29">comedians </a>make hay of the situation, and whether or
not it will impact the polar vortex. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mittened
fingers crossed that it helps warm things up outside the Christie household. </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-90028007101224996882013-11-05T15:44:00.001-06:002013-11-05T15:44:30.742-06:00Invisible Primary: “Double Down” Edition <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The best part of a political campaign is the
after-action review that comes when some enterprising journos grab DC insiders
by the lapels and convince them to talk about all the crap that went down on
the trail. Convincing politicos to talk is not as difficult as it seems, since
most people in DC will yak endlessly about themselves prompted only by the word:
“Hi.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For years this campaign accounting was accomplished
nicely by Jack Germond and Jules Witcover, who managed to uncover such nuggets
as the one about Dan Quayle being so dumb that if you told him to turn off the
light he’d forget what he was doing before he reached the switch. Good stuff. Today
we have </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Mark Halperin and John Heilemann who
knocked the socks off of the chattering class a few years ago with “Game Change.”
Since Sarah Palin isn’t here to kick around anymore, the newest tome about the
race for the White House is <a href="http://swampland.time.com/2013/11/02/the-hunt-for-pufferfish/">“Double Down” </a>and it goes for the Romney jugular while managing to hit collateral damage against Obama's campaign in the process. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I know
what you’re thinking: Of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">course</i> I
haven’t read it. No one will – they’ll do the “Washington Read” where you look
in the index, find your name, read about yourself and put the book on the table
so people will think you studied it. But I can skim the breathless accounts and<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/05/books/double-down-by-mark-halperin-and-john-heilemann.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0"> book reviews </a>like the next girl, and it seems to me that the whole megillah is less
about the past and more about the future: Specifically, what is going to happen
in 2016. So buckle in, kids. Here are the gossipy “Double Down” tidbits about
our favorite IP candidates. Thanks to Politico for this <a href="http://www.politico.com//story/2013/11/5-biggest-losers-in-double-down-99245.html">helpful account</a>: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">#1: Chris
Christie: Today marks the official Christie gubernatorial re-election walk,
but the book is bound to cast some long shadows over Christie’s victory.
The book makes several accusations about lateness, errors, and temper tantrums
that would make a three year old stand back and applaud. Basically, the one
line summary is that the New Jersey Republican’s file was </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“littered
with potential landmines” which was why he was not considered for a VP position
in 2012. Whoops.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">#2: Joe Biden: And speaking of Vice Presidents,
perhaps the biggest jaw dropper to come out of the book is that the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/double-down-game-change-joe-biden-hillary-clinton-99204.html?hp=f3">Obama campaign considered dumping my boyfriend Veep Bee for Hillary Clinton</a>. The
White House, of course, vehemently denies this, but the account made a larger point that Obama did exclude Biden from a number of campaign appearances which makes
him look marginalized at best, like a yutz at worst. The yutz factor has always
been Biden’s Achilles heel, so this is not good news if he’s planning a bid
against Hillary. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">#3: Bill Clinton: Though not running for anything,
the book is apparently littered with tales of Bill’s annoying solipsistic </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">behaviors which may have an effect
on the Mrs. as she launches her own 2016 campaign. I doubt anyone is going to
be surprised that Bill Clinton, who was once described quite funnily to me as a
man with “owl sized appetites” has narcissistic tendencies, but who needs that
when <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/chuck-schumer-endorses-hillary-clinton-president-article-1.1505134">Chuck Schumer wants you to be the first woman president</a>?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">All of
this is good, clean fun unless you are the subject of the fish-themed nicknames
that were apparently used in the super-secret vetting process for VP: “Pufferfish”
for Christie, “Filet o Fish” for Portman, Rubio was “Pescado” and Ryan was
(giggles) “Fishconsin.” Well at least <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that
</i>one was funny.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Does any
of this hearsay mean anything as our tireless IP candidates run for the roses? Probably
not explicitly. I mean, who cares if Obama said that he liked Bill Clinton “in doses?”
What matters is the fuel this book gives to the existing narratives about the
candidates. If the public already has a wary eye on Christie's temper or Biden’s
ability to be taken seriously, this doesn’t help. But that is why time is a
friend to candidates who need to restore their street cred. Remember Rubio’s
water lunge from the post-SoTU speech last year? Neither does anyone else. Five
bucks says that in a year from now “Double Down” will simply be that awful KFC
sandwich that can kill a healthy man with one bite.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Unless the book gets made into an HBO movie with<a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Zach+woods&client=firefox-a&hs=xBV&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=kWR5Uu3ZJ4nLsQTvj4DYDw&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1760&bih=834#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=gGAMKsERFmRaPM%3A%3B-9jr67X0PBqY3M%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww1.pictures.gi.zimbio.com%252FZach%252BWoods%252BPremiere%252BLoop%252B2009%252BTribeca%252BFilm%252BBO5hVNPc_rax.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.zimbio.com%252FZach%252BWoods%252Fpictures%252Fpro%3B750%3B1024"> Zach Woods as Paul Ryan</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Whoops. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-50346822452129267132013-10-06T13:26:00.001-05:002013-10-06T13:26:49.127-05:00There's More to It than Being on TVI thought I'd rip off a quick post here not so much as to offer some new and profound thoughts on the pre-primary, but to give us all a quick reminder what the invisible primary isn't either in theory or in practice. As this is my first chance to watch a live game on Sunday this season I'll make this brief.<div>
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A lot of ink has spilled and pixels darkened about Sen. Ted Cruz and his apparent 2016 ambitions. As <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/25/ted-cruz-fillibuster-speech-obamacare" target="_blank">many</a> would have us believe, grabbing the limelight is the first order of business for presidential hopefuls at this point in the election cycle. While this may help a candidate's invisible primary strategy, let's not forget a couple things. </div>
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First, the invisible primary isn't all about candidates going to the people; it's a conversation that takes place within a party (broadly defined) as <i>they</i> seek candidates. This isn't to say that candidates actions are unimportant in invisible primary success, they're just less important than many folks assume. Several, if not most, of the invisible primary winners (think George W. Bush) weren't out playing a public game at this point. Quite importantly, Bush wasn't out there pissing off anyone in the party at this time in 1997, he was making nice with nearly every GOP governor and other well placed Republicans whilst they were vetting him. </div>
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Second, Sen. Cruz's faux filibuster has only appealed to a narrow band of the Republican electorate. While the talk of a Republican civil war is in no doubt overblown, he is irritating a rather important wing of his party. As the invisible primary is in largest part a party-centric enterprise, simply gaining public standing in one faction of the party, while simultaneously alienating another isn't the best course of action. The Tea Party may be a plurality, or even a majority of the party at the moment, but those simple numbers don't guarantee success. We know that when the party does land on a strong general election nominee, faction leaders tend to lose out in the invisible primary in favor of another candidate that isn't any faction's first choice, but is nevertheless unobjectionable to the mix of constituencies within both parties. </div>
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So if Sen. Cruz is seriously pondering a presidential run, he'd best start playing nice with his colleagues and worry about broad party goals as well as his own personal electoral ones. If he blows off the better part of his caucus, he'll in no doubt be in a good spot for reelection, but he'll be shooting himself in the foot for higher office.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-19694084596333649552013-10-02T15:50:00.004-05:002013-10-06T11:56:59.786-05:00The invisible primary in hiding.<style>
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It is tempting to want to unload over the current budget and
impending debt limit crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is so
much to say, so much grist for the mill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But most of it has probably been said and, besides, this blog is about
the invisible primary so, is there anything to say about it given the current
distraction?</div>
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How about Paul Ryan’s almost no-existent roll in all
this?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is, as I remember it, the
Radical Right’s wonder-boy when it comes to the budget.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he has almost nothing to say.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In realty, his former obsession with Medicare
might actually be a better fit as a bargaining chip for the GOP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Medicare actually has a big impact on the
current and future federal budget, certainly more than the ACA by most
assessments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I mean, if you are going to
hold a hostage, you might as well get what you want for its return straight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is like someone stealing my cat and
demanding a ransom from my proctologist (not that I need a proctologist….).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More accurately, it is like kidnapping your
own child, and demanding ransom from their sibling for her to be returned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You both want her returned, you will make
sure she is going to get returned, you were just too stupid not to hold the
Dora the Explore DVD in return for the ransom.</div>
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Interestingly enough the one glimmer you see of him is <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/government-shutdown-looms-fundraising-zooms-97481.html">fundraising
over the issue</a> for his leadership committee, Prosperity PAC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And his dealings over this issue are not the
only place he stays hidden.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In August,
as these issues began to percolate, he attended a highly secure and <a href="http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jack_craver/paul-ryan-attends-secretive-koch-brothers-event-in-new-mexico/article_95326454-0040-11e3-8af2-001a4bcf887a.html">secret
meeting</a> with the Koch brothers in New Mexico.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does his public silence on this tip his hat
to a view that this battle may not be good for a presidential run?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given the leadership vacuum in the House,
this would be a good time for him to try and give clarity and logic to the Tea
Party message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His potential challengers,
Cruz not withstanding, have been equally quite or even somewhat critical of the
approach adopted by the radical minority of the GOP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marco Rubio weighed in on the faux-filibuster
with Cruz, but just enough for the people who care to notice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, except for Cruz, the Senate
Republicans really want little to do with all of this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chris<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Christie criticized the approach, but his position has to be taken in
context of an impending reelection as governor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Jeb Bush, critical; Rand Paul, mostly silent; Scott Walker, silent;
Condoleezza Rice; silent (yes, I am the first on this blog to suggest she could
be a conten-da).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rick Santorum, he is
talking about it, but I addressed him <a href="http://invisibleprimary.blogspot.com/">last week in my entry</a>.</div>
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I think one reason why Ryan, and some of the other invisible
primary contenders, are staying silent is because they are interested in
governing and this is clearly not governing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So they have that going for them, which is nice.</div>
Loncehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10517883891991295366noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-78105417602555411942013-10-01T13:58:00.000-05:002013-10-01T18:20:09.481-05:00Beware of Turkish Prime Ministers Bearing GiftsIn the middle of our routine, faux-panic over government shutdowns, debt ceiling limits, heightened polarization, and various other events that make Americans think their system is falling apart, allow me a diversion to a nation that faces similar problems <i>for reals, with huge stakes...</i> What does this have to do with the invisible primary? Nothing really, but I'm the macdaddy of this blog. So if I want to write about parties and elections elsewhere in the world I will.<br />
<br />
As many of you know, I've more than a passing interest in Turkey. I lived and worked there for four years in capacities varying from university professor, political consultant, to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. My obvious familial connection to the nation (well, obvious to those who know me), runs far deeper; and my family's future there is highly dependent upon decisions made in Ankara. The connection is deep enough that I honestly see my self keeling over Michael Corleone style (at the end of Godfather 3) as I'm gazing over the lush beauty of Kocahıdır in western Thrace. Simply put, I care deeply about what goes on there, particularly on political issues that pertain to the Kurdish "problem" and the general liberalization of the political system. <br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F1QO41CojW4/Ukr5zqtA1SI/AAAAAAAAABs/Bp9rlYg2haU/s1600/willie.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="239" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F1QO41CojW4/Ukr5zqtA1SI/AAAAAAAAABs/Bp9rlYg2haU/s320/willie.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">My son Liam doing the çapulcu thing in Ankara, June 2013.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Parallel to the events of this summer's nation-wide protests that stemmed from PM Erdogan's plans to put yet another big assed mall in Istanbul's Taksim square (hallowed political ground for the Turkish left and some of the last open space in the Beyoğlu district), has been the decades long struggle for Kurdish cultural and political rights (by the way, these protests <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2013/09/2013910161847778987.html" target="_blank">have not gone away</a>, though domestic and international attention to them certainly has). <br />
<br />
The AKP government has been trickling out reforms in a fractured, erratic, piecemeal fashion for some time now; always with an eye on capturing a piece of the Kurdish vote (which worked to a degree) yet not giving more than they need or get away with politically. A couple of days ago they released yet another round of such reform proposals. The center piece of this package is a proposal to re-work the most undemocratic aspect of the militarily imposed constitution of 1982 - the 10% electoral threshold. 10% is no accident. Back in 1935 Ismet Inonu, acting as Kemal Ataturk's PM, wrote a report in which he recommended that no ethnic group be allowed to comprise more than 10% of a local population. This was then used as a benchmark in the continuing "population exchanges" to Turkify the Kurds (as well as other "others") throughout the southeast and relocate many to the western parts of the nation. Fast forward to 1982, when the military wished to impose barriers to virtually ensure that no Kurdish party could be consistently elected, a national threshold of 10% was chosen. Was 10% a coincidence? Possibly in the strict sense, but the long term goal of Turkish socialization has been realized to the degree that Kurdish identity has been weakened enough to be a primary political identity for about 7% of the population.<br />
<br />
The present system is pretty straight forward, and apart from the threshold, quite fair. At present there are 85 districts based mostly on municipal boundaries, with Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir divided into multiple districts. District magnitudes vary from 1 to 30. Seats are apportioned using the D'Hondt method of proportional representation. For reasons made abundantly clear in the 2002 election, when over 50% of the population voted for a party that <i>didn't </i>enter the parliament, the two main parties dig this threshold. The AKP turned a 34% take into a 66% share of seats in the TBMM. The farcical opposition party, the CHP, magically transformed a 19% vote into 32% of the seats. Since then, they have dogmatically supported the high threshold as they've both picked up far more seats than their electoral support has warranted in each succeeding election. So it came as something of a surprise to me yesterday when a student asked me about the suggestion of lowering the threshold to 5%. Let's be clear on this, Erdogan is no genius. But what he lacks for in brains and sophistication, he makes up for in raw political instinct. Surely he hadn't walked into such a blunder? <br />
<br />
He hasn't. True to his pattern of political reform for the benefit of himself, the devil here is in the details. For starters, he didn't personally endorse the lower threshold, but merely stated it should be a point of parliamentary discussion. Given the extreme personalization of the parties there, I can imagine how that discussion will conclude. He immediately proposed two other possibilities: 1) Increasing the number of districts to 110 districts of 5 each, and if I read this correctly (and how do I hope I am not) the party that takes the majority in the district <i>takes all five seats</i>. 2) Moving to 550 single member plurality districts. To say this is a sharp break from what they have now is the understatement of the year. Either option would represent a clear regression of the democratic process in Turkey. Being an illiberal democracy, the only thing Turkey really has going for it is its electoral system, which is both fair and freely administered by a politically independent commission. Take those democratic qualities away, and we'll see another precious layer of democracy stripped from the nation.<br />
<br />
True to Erdogan's caginess, either of these monstrosities would serve both the aims of limited "reform" and his own political security. The AKP will clearly dominate the political map in either scenario, and I don't even want to speculate on how strongly they'd gerrymander the districts to achieve this. Either scheme would most likely result in a marginal increase in the number of MPs from the Kurdish BDP (Peace and Democracy Party) who has until now, "sneaked" under the threshold by running independent candidates (that have suffered from severe limitations of electoral efficiency as it requires tremendous coordination of write-in voting). However it would come at a cost, they may well increase overall numbers by getting more candidates out east, but they'd undoubtedly lose their MPs from the urban centers in the west. In the main, the BDP has been very cool to the proposal; just as they have in every round of reform coming from the man. <br />
<br />
As for the other parties it is a mixed bag. The CHP as the consistent number two party would probably be marginally effected. But in the best of scenarios, the pathetic state of the party's leadership, rank-and-file, back benchers, local officials, members, and voters in the electorate dooms them to parliamentary ineptitude despite any marginal gains (or losses) they may see. The <strike>neo</strike>-fascist MHP is screaming bloody murder at this proposal, which on a normal day I'd say is a good sign. Not only are they troubled with any relaxation of state or citizenship identity drifting away from an ethnic or racial basis in some of the packages other points, they will be the big losers here electorally as they have very little chance of taking a majority in most constituencies however they may be drawn geographically. <br />
<br />
The bottom line is this: beware of Turkish Prime Ministers bearing gifts, even if on face the reforms seems genuine. The initially lofty and loudly trumpeted democratic ambitions of the AKP's first and second governments have been all but lost in the personal ambitions of their leader after he learned to consolidate power without their help. What once looked like the foundation of a genuinely mass based political party (something that's never been seen in Turkey before) that included many liberal voices has collapsed into something quite narrower - just another neo-patrimonial party intent on doling out state largess to its patrons. Seeing this, Tayyipbey needs to proceed with caution if he has any intention of staying in the political game much longer. There are limits to how much this kind of institutional monkeying can benefit one's party, particularly when you live in an electoral democracy as volatile as we have in Turkey. In the past couple elections, the Turkish electorate has very consciously made a tradeoff between the political stability and economic benefits that have come with AKP single party government, and the deviation from long standing norms of the Turkish Republic (see Ali Carkoglu's work on economic retrospective voting in Turkey). Voters knowingly departed from their own policy preferences in favor of good economic conditions and calm political times, while tolerating much of what the AKP has stood for socially. Their tolerance will only go so far and they may well renege on that bargain should the hubris of Erdogan take him much farther down the road of blatantly stacking the institutional deck in his favor. His barbarous response to the mass demonstrations this summer has undoubtedly hurt him. True enough, he has the luxury of a ridiculous main opposition party in the CHP that makes things easier, but there's always the possibility that the political power demonstrated this summer could be channeled through either an existing party or something new that could upset the political calculus that Erdogan has been banking on. I'd like to think that his winter is coming, but only time will tell.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-__e6IISD8Gs/UksP_jSop8I/AAAAAAAAAB8/eyVXHOS0jzM/s1600/1003127_10152395904399897_844663517_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="297" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-__e6IISD8Gs/UksP_jSop8I/AAAAAAAAAB8/eyVXHOS0jzM/s400/1003127_10152395904399897_844663517_n.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">You can try to delay it with institutional trickery, but it's still coming...</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">all photos courtesy of Evren Çelik Wiltse</span>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-11254705364662565042013-09-27T16:47:00.001-05:002013-09-27T16:47:39.363-05:00I have nothing to say.
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I should not admit this as an active blogger, but I have
nothing new to add to the discussion about the impending budget battle taking
place in Congress.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nor do I have much to
add about its twin sister, the debt limit showdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Together they look like Gerard Depardieu and
Nick Nolte on a date at a Chuck E. Cheese.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Although there is one aspect that never made much sense to
me and when I ran this issue by my class they just asked if it would be on the
exam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In regards to the debt limit
fight, the Radical Right always say they want something in return for lifting
the debt ceiling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As if they didn’t want
it lifted, as if solvency was not a priority for them, as if maintaining a
credit rating that allows us to borrow money for almost free, is not good
enough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They make it sound like agreeing
to borrow money so that we can pay the bills on obligations they voted for is
something they don’t want.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It never
makes sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is like being at your
birthday party and saying to your guests, yes, I will take your gifts, but only
if you are willing to agree to mow my lawn, do the dishes, press my shirts, and
get the gummy worms out from under the seat of my car that my kids left
there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can imagine the strategy
meeting with the House Republican Study Committee went something <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7XpvbzYqbI">like this</a>. (thanks to my student Noah)</div>
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Like I said, I have nothing to add to those battles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which means we have to go back to our most
reliable source of material – Rick Santorum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In fact Rick Santorum is to invisible primary bloggers what
…..well…..Rick Santorum is to late night talk show hosts.</div>
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He is ginning up his game these days ever since Sen. Ted
Cruz (from the great 51<sup>st</sup> state of Canada) has been stealing the spot
reserved for radical, nonsensical, candidates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Rick has been to Alabama to open up a new <a href="http://alreporter.com/archives/2012-september/146-state/5176-santorum-speaks-at-republican-rally-in-muscle-shoals.html">GOP
headquarters</a> (because they need one of those like they need another Chick-fil-A).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But not to be further upstaged by Senator
Cruz’s eloquently reading of One Fish, Two Fish, Red Fish, Blue Fish on the
Senate Floor; Santorum just had his first public screening of a new movie that <a href="http://www.echolight.com/">his media conglomerate</a> produced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will be coming to a theater or sanctuary near
you soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Called “The Christmas Candle,”
it is an attempt to grow the strong base of support he gets from the Jewish
community, at least that is what I read in the comment sections of a reputable “news”
source (shout out to @LawnMowerBeerBelly).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Christmas Candle (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkviIYKjPyw">here is the brief trailer</a>
– no, really, check out the trailer) is also an attempt to appeal to a broader,
more Obama-centered, group by appealing to the theme of “hope”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Santorum stated in his <a href="http://echolight.com/news/thechristmascandlemovie/#more-149">press
release</a>, “Our goal is to release quality entertainment with positive,
uplifting messages of hope,” Santorum continued. “That’s what people across
America and the world are looking for, including my own family.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
big-tent-loving, bipartisan move is a clear sign that he would have voted to <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/09/senate-reaches-bipartisan-deal-to-shut-down-ted-cruz.html">defund
Ted Cruz</a>, like many of the other GOP Senators did, in his recent Senate performance.</div>
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This all bodes well for the Santorum for America campaign a
la 2016 but I fear he may be slipping a little in his game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For instance, I was surprised he missed the
chance to be part of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/03/kkk-naacp-meeting_n_3859627.html">this
ground breaking meeting</a> with conservative and liberal groups in the key
swing-state of Wyoming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Yes I chose to
make two KKK references and leave Hitler out of this posting).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I also expect to see a big shake-up in his
campaign staff due to their inability to secure Mr. Santorum a role that did
NOT include an Uncle Sam mask in <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FEUoNkF29o">this Koch Brother</a>’s
commercial.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although he seemed to be
pretty nimble with that speculum.</div>
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Stay tuned for bigger things! Soon Sen. Cruz will not have a
forum to dominate and distract people from the nation’s business and Mr. Santorum
will, once again, be able to regain his leading spot for 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That pretty much guarantees that I will post
at least one more time before 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Thanks for the collective sigh of relief.</div>
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Loncehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10517883891991295366noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-13210160740481143052013-09-24T17:07:00.002-05:002013-09-24T17:07:15.439-05:00Fall = Best Season EverAnd we're back! Late September formally brings us academic classes in full swing and autumnal glory where all college campuses look like they do in the brochures. Crunchy leaves, sweater-wearing students, cheerful football games and underage drinking. Ah, September. On a personal note, my students this semester are <i>fabulous!</i><u></u> They totally make up for the feces-fest unraveling now on Capitol Hill, because watching that is enough to discourage even a stalwart, system-adoring political scientist. Here's to a new generation!<br />
<br />
But first, let's look at the current state of affairs.<br />
<br />
This September brings us another perennial nugget of joy: the threat of a government shutdown. Unless you have been completely distracted by the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWBhP0EQ1lA">WORLD'S BEST COMMERCIAL</a> (as, I confess, I have been at times where distraction is necessary), you know about the looming crisis and the resulting rift in the Republican Party. If not, please let <a href="http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/stan-collender/2766/cliffgate-are-you-really-betting-tea-party-stop-shutdown?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CapitalGainsAndGames+%28Capital+Gains+and+Games+-+Wall+Street%2C+Washington%2C+and+Everything+in+Between%29">this terrific article</a> explain for you the coming week (courtesy of my friend and fellow blogger, Lonce). And sorry for stealing this, Lonce. You an also check out <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/harry-reid-ted-cruz-senate-97215.html?ml=po_r">this good one </a>from Politico (like they do anything badly?). <br />
<br />
Since this entire kerfuffle is political theater, you just <i>know</i> there has to be Invisible Primary drama behind the scenes and so we begin with the thespianism on the floor of the US Senate <i>right this minute! </i>Quick! To C-SPAN 2 (the Deuce)! Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R) l<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/09/24/cruz-launches-extended-remarks-in-opposition-to-obamacare/?hpid=z2">aunched an old-fashioned filibuster</a> <i>(ala</i> Mr. Smith) against Obamacare and vouched to speak "until I am no longer able to stand." Good on you, sir, and this comes after a bruising little amount of press that <a href="http://www.gq.com/news-politics/newsmakers/201310/ted-cruz-republican-senator-october-2013">called you a bunch of names </a>and also <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/how-unpopular-is-ted-cruz-right-now/279903/">questioned your popularity</a>. It's good to stand for something, especially when you actually <i>have to stand</i> in order to stand for it.<br />
<br />
But the possible shutdown tactic is splitting the GOP which is never good, unless you are a Democrat. Specifically, the 2016 IP contenders have to weigh in on this and thus far the results are mixed. Republican Governors Chris Christie (NJ) and Scott Walker (WI) both begrudgingly said that <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/harry-reid-ted-cruz-senate-97215.html?ml=po_r">they would not want to shut the government down</a>, as did former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. On the other side are the aforementioned Cruz and Sen. Mike Lee, and sorta kinda Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who seems to want it both ways by saying that "The American people support defunding Obamacare and oppose shutting down the government." OK! Not sure how that works out, but here is <a href="http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2013/sep/23/marco-rubio/marco-rubio-favors-defunding-obamacare-opposes-gov/">PolitiFact's take </a>on Rubio's press statement. <br />
<br />
So how is it going to end? Good Lord, who knows? I do know that Veep Biden schlepped out to flood-devastated Colorado and promised that <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/24/joe-biden-colorado-flood_n_3979252.html">regardless of any shutdown, FEMA would provide assistance</a> to those in need which was both reassuring and tactically savvy, all at the same time. Last week, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/vice-president-joe-biden-sparks-2016-speculation-visit-iowa-steak-fry-article-1.1457848">Biden was in Iowa at the Tom Harkin steak fry</a>, which fueled speculation that he was, in fact, running. At the fry, he swapped hats with an Iowan for a photo-op, which only fueled my motherly instinct to yell "DON'T DO THAT!" as a preventative measure against head lice. Joe, don't say I didn't warn you. And don't share your comb or barrettes either. <br />
<br />
Wrapping up this week in the Invisible Primary, last night former President Bill Clinton was on David Letterman, who was fishing for Hillary 2016 scoop. Letterman said:<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/24/bill-clinton-tells-letterman-i-honestly-dont-know-whether-hillary-will-run-in-2016-video/"> “If she is running to your knowledge, blink twice.”</a> Bill denied all knowledge of his wife's intentions, which did not seem to surprise me in the least. Fair turnabout, don't you think?<br />
<br />
That's all from the cheap seats. if the government shuts down, I tell my students, the price of pizza is going to sky rocket and beer will be banned in all 50 states. They don't believe me. See? What a smart, terrific group I've got! Hooray for September. And Happy Fall everyone!<br />
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-62670060677471822012013-08-22T15:11:00.001-05:002013-08-22T15:11:23.916-05:00There’s Running and there’s “Running”<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
baddest of the running bad-asses in Chambersburg is my friend Johna, both
whip-smart and jamming-fast, but I can only talk to her when she’s stationary - otherwise she is a sprinting blond dot way ahead of
me. Recently I had her cornered and our conversation turned to politics. Johna
posed the question of the Democratic nomination in 2016: Hillary or Biden? It
is a great question, and the fact that Johna asked it made me think about the
differences between running and “running.” Stay with me here: Johna runs a 7
minute mile and runs about 20 miles a day. That is RUNNING. That is running in
a way that most of us cannot fathom. That is running for reals, as the kids
say, and compared to Johna I am a koala (it’s the sleepiest animal in the
world. I looked it up). I run 6, maybe 8 miles at a sluggish pace and while I
am “running” I am not really running. Johna runs for a personal record (PR), I run to listen
to music and avoid people. Johna will win medals, I will be able to eat two goldfish
crackers and not gain weight. Johna is running. I am “running.” And even though
both forms of running involve the essentially same movements, they are entirely
different activities.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
same thing can be said for the race to the White House. There are good reasons
to “run” for president in our fabulous Invisible Primary, beyond the base craving
to look in the mirror and say “Hello Mr. (or Mrs.) President.” I recently did a
fun interview with the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Financial Times</i>
where I spoke about this, so please allow me here to briefly address those
reasons to “run” for president, as opposed to actually RUNNING for president. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Name
recognition = Book and TV deals. You may think me cynical, but give Mike
Huckabee a shout at Fox and ask him how it all worked out for him? Cha-Ching!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Power
positioning: You may not make the show, but you may get a job at State. And if
you are, say, the Governor of Montana, State looks pretty good right about now.
Not that there’s anything wrong with Montana.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Ideological
positioning: A tip of the tin foil hat goes to Uncle Larry here, for his
steadfast devotion to Ron Paul. The good doctor just kept it going, long past
the expiration date, just to make a point. And then he handed down the baton to
Rand, to keep that running going in what I will for now on call the “Paul Relay.”
</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">These
reasons add up to a field full of contenders and wannabees, and sometimes it’s
tough to tell who is who. The news stories in the slow August recess weeks are
chock full of 2016 prognostications, and if you glance through the top-10 lists
on both sides, you will see that everyone appears to be VERY serious about running
for president. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">My
former boss at C-SPAN, Brian Lamb, always says: “Follow the money” and it’s
good advice. When these cats start hunting for real campaign contributions we
will be better suited to see who is running and who is “running.” It’s good to
remember that both running and “running” are not necessarily mutually
exclusive, and the reasons to do both blend in nicely with one another. But it
is fun at this stage of the game to try and guess who is running for a PR and
who is running to distract themselves from syllabi that are due... in 4 days. Just saying.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: "Californian FB","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">You
go, Johna!</span></div>
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<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-1601066899021938992013-08-20T11:56:00.002-05:002013-08-20T11:58:20.348-05:00Middle of Orientation PostNot much of a post today, but I've got a little time to kill as I'm in the middle of a talk on time management as part of my orientation for my new gig at South Dakota State. <br />
<br />
Whilst effectively multi-tasking between the rah rah lectures and blog reading, I came across <a href="http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2013/08/no-really-you-cant-skip-iowa-first-2016.html" target="_blank">this</a> post on skipping Iowa by Jonathan Bernstein.<br />
<br />
To reiterate one point: no, it's not too early to talk about this. Laying down the groundwork for Iowa an the other early contests is the essence of the invisible primary. We're fast approaching the time that events like Tom Harkin's steak fry start to attract possible Democratic hopefuls, say Joe Biden who dropped in this year, and candidates of all stripes will begin trolling the state fair for more important reasons than checking out the butter cow.<br />
<br />
One other bit I'd add one the long list of candidates that skipped Iowa, only to flame out in spectacular fashion later is Rudy Giuliani. By skipping these early contests, Giuliani and these other candidates he mentioned showed a fundamental misunderstanding of the process necessary to win the nomination. While that might have been excusible in the 70s when parties and candidates were figuring out the new system, today it's just plain stupid. As we know the triangulation on a candidate by party activists is key to winning the nomination. Pulling out of these early races either shows a candidate doesn't understand this, or that he or she is so desperate at that point because of their systematic failures in the pre-primary phase.<br />
<br />
So to rope this back to Christie, if he's serious and smart, he'll no doubt be popping up here in the near future.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-23573589202872167902013-07-25T17:53:00.001-05:002013-07-25T17:53:17.144-05:00Hola from Mexico! Anthony Weiner Esta Un Grande Polla!-Hello from our neighbors to the South - Mexico! Yes. I am compelled to blog from our family vacation where I am brushing up on my 4th Grade Spanish while drinking a tanker of tequila. Donde esta la Bibliotecha? And do they serve margaritas there?<br />
<br />
Dave totally stole my initial thought about the anti-Hillary Super PAC, but since he's the padre of this blog I will give him a pass. My muy fabuloso hermano-in-law Brian and I have been devouring the Anthony Weiner story (much to my husband's chagrin: He thinks Weiner should be kicked to the curb and we start talking about important things. Like hockey.), and so I will intellectually contort myself to make this blog, alledgedly about the Invisible Primary, to include the words "sexting," "sociopath" and "dickhead."<br />
<br />
Let's look down the road a few ways, the first to 7 weeks from now: This is when the primaries of NY and NJ hit and we get to watch Chris Christie and Anthony Weiner run for the roses. I'm going to go out here on a limb and predict Christie in a slow walk, and Weiner getting his ass handed to him by a group of gleeful NYers who are drooling over the chance to humiliate him at the polls. Yes. This is a risky bet, but it's why they pay me the big bucks to blog. Let's start with Christie and get to the good stuff: Carlos Danger.<br />
<br />
Yes, 2013 is gonna be a big year, mostly because one of the front-runners for the GOP is going to win easily. The hilarious thing is that, even though the off-years are state-wides, the pundit class will use such 5-buck words as "harbinger" and "predictive" and "portent" to say Chris Christie is un dealio grande. As they say in Mexico. Which is pronounced "Meh-Hee-Co." I am off topic. But 2013 will set the stage for the 2014 which is where we go next.<br />
<br />
Hola and que tal to the "Madam President" list of winners who should be watched. Also, 2014 is muy importante for the GOP who is withering in the House and hanging on in the Senate, and desperately trying to figure out who will show for the Show of 2016: the hard-line Tea Party-backed conservatives who think Richard Murdock and Todd Akin were simply misunderstood, or the establishment Republicans who think Reagan has been hijacked by... everybody. See (and this is where the intellectual contortion comes in handy), the races that lead up to the 2016 presidential will be analyzed in greater detail than any invasion plan Donald Rumsfeld ever had a hand in.<br />
<br />
Hand in? Let's get to Weiner! BOOM! So, as Ross Perot would say, here's the deal. Anthony, I was with you. You did the 5 steps of scandal/redemption nicely enough to lead in the polls. I warned you that not enough time had passed, but you jumped into the NYC Mayoral race and I thought I might be wrong. But then you went un grande loco on me and changed the narrative: You sexted with random women AFTER you resigned in disgrace? AFTER? AFTER?!?!? Son, you lost me. And here is why.<br />
<br />
As my muy bonita college roommate Martha once observed: Marriage is hard. It is. And I am NEVER one to think that I can peek inside someone else's relationship and give them advice. Hell, I am smart enough to know that I don't want anyone peeling my own marital onion, mostly because it ain't anyone's bid-ess but my own and life is complicated. BUT. When we make decisions in private, we don't get to call them private when we run for a public office where the sole criteria is... decision making. See, Anthony - had you either kept your fingers in yer gloves or not run for public office, then I'd still be with you. But you didn't. No, a YEAR AFTER you resigned in disgrace you were still sexting random sycophantic women who took the reigns of power from you and promptly sold it to the highest bidder. Allow me to quote from the marvelous "House of Cards:" Everything is about sex, except sex. Sex is about power. And when you are dumb enough to give up the power to some random age-inappropriate random, then you do not get to be mayor of anywhere. Ever. Really.<br />
<br />
So to Anthony Weiner, I say this: Go away, por favor. What you have done to poor Huma is reason enough to make certain that you hide your face for a long while. Dragging her up to a press conference in order to make you look pretty is mean and sociopathic. You are a narcissistic ball of yuck and the Democratic Party can do better.<br />
<br />
As for Carlos Danger, I want to say: The interwebs auto-correct my last name to Danger. I always thought this was awesome. Now, I am having thoughtos sugundo. If you get an e-mail from me signed "Alison Danger," there is no relation. Por favor.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04428477928998847552noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-17156207283858133682013-07-22T09:31:00.000-05:002013-07-22T09:31:33.453-05:00An Invisible Primary First?As some of you may have read in the past week, an explicitly anti-Hillary Clinton super PAC called <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/hillary-clinton-2016-stop-hillary-pac-94542.html?hp=l8" target="_blank">Stop Hillary</a> has been created. The founders are a classic mix of intense policy demanders comprised of state politicians (mostly from Colorado), former congressional and presidential campaign staffers, and a lobbyist or two. Included in this cadre is Matt Rhodes who recently helped found the Republican opposition research super PAC <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/mitt-romney-alums-super-pac-94341.html" target="_blank">America Rising</a>. How much money Stop Hillary can raise and what resources they can deploy are anyone's guess, but we shouldn't be surprised that something like this has come along.<br />
<br />
So here's an honest question (and if you know the answer please let us know): Is this the first time a PAC has formed explicitly to oppose a non-declared candidate in the invisible primary?<br />
<br />
We've obviously seen PACs and super PACs affiliated with candidates beat up on each other, as they did in the 2012 invisible primary. America Rising itself was a delayed response to the Democratic opposition research super PAC <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_94/American-Bridge-21st-Century-Super-PAC-Is-Hub-of-Left-212321-1.html" target="_blank">American Bridge</a>, but these are groups with broader goals. Even Citizens United was established decades before it aired its hugely consequential film on Sen. Clinton in the 2008 primary, though most people never heard of it until 2009. But Stop Hillary seems unique in its singular purpose. The names speaks volumes, and probably says it all.<br />
<br />
While American Bridge was content to confine its work out of the public eye - digging up dirt and embarrassing bits about various Republicans then feeding it to the press - Stop Hillary seems to be fully intent on grabbing as much publicity as they can. Their first major play will be a video which is set to be released later this week. I guess their first test is see if anyone notices...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1570483899343765157.post-74871834034633444992013-07-02T11:57:00.002-05:002013-07-02T11:57:21.814-05:00Coffee House Guy, the Money Primary, and the Invisible Primary<br />
Over the past two weeks I was lucky enough to take a bit a of road trip to Oregon and Washington to visit a dear friend and family before the nuttiness of preparing my house for sale and moving up to South Dakota State (Go Jacks!) begins in ernest. Generally when I'm on the road I don't make a particular point of socializing with random folks, and my first general order is to never blurt out that I'm a political scientist to strangers. As my colleagues in the profession can attest to, that can elicit a wide variety of responses, the vast majority of which we'd rather not hear. However, at a moment of weakness in a coffee joint in Park City, I was pinned down with an incriminating pile of manuscripts awaiting editorial action by coffee house guy.<br />
<br />
After his finding pretense to engage me, exchanging pleasantries (which I suck at by the way), explaining what I was up to, and my areas of interest, we had a decent little exchange on presidential elections that got me thinking. Here's the critical bit:<br />
<br />
CHG: So who's the odds on favorite for the Republicans? After all, we know Hillary will be the nominee for the Dems, since she's got all the money.<br />
<br />
Me: Obviously it's too early to make an accurate prediction, but I'd look for someone who's got a good reputation amongst Republican governors and perhaps Senators, and can get along with the Tea Party types, evangelicals, and the country club set... maybe someone like Rob Portman, hell even Jeb Bush if he can restore the brand name.<br />
<br />
CHG: What about Rand Paul? He's got a bunch of hardcore supporters and can probably tap into his dad's great fundraising network, and money's the name of the game in the primaries.<br />
<br />
Me: Money is one of those things you can't do a thing without, but it's not everything. And, it can't be flowing in just one direction towards the candidate. Early on, it's more important that the candidate be raising money for other folks and the parties at various levels. Both Ron Paul and Howard Dean were raking the money into their campaigns in the early primary seasons and both had their asses handed to them when the voters began to weigh in. Their opponents had developed networks of office holders and party activists that could open up the taps when the time came.<br />
<br />
CHG: Makes sense.<br />
<br />
Me: Yeah, I wish I was the one who wrote the book on that...<br />
<br />
CHG: So Hillary's not got it in the bag either.<br />
<br />
Me: No, but she's got a lot more going for her than money. Unless something big happens between now and then, as it did in 2007, she'll be well positioned with Democratic office holders and activists for a strong run. She'll raise money for them and they for her; to say nothing about the pro staff and volunteers she'll pick up in the process.<br />
<br />
CHG: What about those 501 groups?<br />
<br />
Me: Yeah you're spot on, just another way for the money to be raised and spent between the players.<br />
<br />
CHG: Well good talking to you, take it easy bro.<br />
<br />
Me: Uh, yeah. You too, um dude.<br />
<br />
***<br />
<br />
The money primary and invisible primary are often conflated, but I think we need to carefully separate the concepts, and be very clear about the nuances of money in the process. All things considered, I'm all for retiring the use of the term "money primary" all together as it obfuscates more than it clarifies.<br />
<br />
For starters, the invisible primary clearly involves money, but it's not determinative. The term "money primary" evokes a candidate centered process, reminiscent of David Broder's famous observation that politicians are essentiallyself-nominated and financed political entrepreneurs. This feeds into the widely, yet wrongly held belief that money is everything in politics. Central to the concept of the invisible primary is that the party - broadly conceived - is attempting to triangulate on an acceptable candidate. It's as much - if not more - about the various constituencies and officials within the party looking for a good nominee as it is self-starters looking to tap into the organizational and financial resources of the party's principle players.<br />
<br />
By conceiving of the pre-primary period as simply the money primary, we lose a great deal of what's taking place within the party. A commonly held belief about Gov Tim Pawlenty's hasty exit after the Iowa straw poll was him losing the money chase. While his fundraising clearly was falling behind Romney's, we now know that his real trouble was finding bannermen amongst well placed Republicans. While there's clearly some simultaneity with money and party support going on, history shows us that party support is the critical factor. And as I suggested to the coffee house guy in Park City, the entrepreneur like Dean in '04, who pads his own pockets nicely, but fails to pad the pockets of others in the invisible primary, will probably take an inglorious early exit.<br />
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com1