Fall = Best Season Ever

And we're back! Late September formally brings us academic classes in full swing and autumnal glory where all college campuses look like they do in the brochures. Crunchy leaves, sweater-wearing students, cheerful football games and underage drinking. Ah, September. On a personal note, my students this semester are fabulous! They totally make up for the feces-fest unraveling now on Capitol Hill, because watching that is enough to discourage even a stalwart, system-adoring political scientist. Here's to a new generation!

But first, let's look at the current state of affairs.

This September brings us another perennial nugget of joy: the threat of a government shutdown. Unless you have been completely distracted by the WORLD'S BEST COMMERCIAL (as, I confess, I have been at times where distraction is necessary), you know about the looming crisis and the resulting rift in the Republican Party. If not, please let this terrific article explain for you the coming week (courtesy of my friend and fellow blogger, Lonce). And sorry for stealing this, Lonce. You an also check out this good one from Politico (like they do anything badly?).

Since this entire kerfuffle is political theater, you just know there has to be Invisible Primary drama behind the scenes and so we begin with the thespianism on the floor of the US Senate right this minute! Quick! To C-SPAN 2 (the Deuce)! Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R) launched an old-fashioned filibuster (ala Mr. Smith) against Obamacare and vouched to speak "until I am no longer able to stand." Good on you, sir, and this comes after a bruising little amount of press that called you a bunch of names and also questioned your popularity. It's good to stand for something, especially when you actually have to stand in order to stand for it.

But the possible shutdown tactic is splitting the GOP which is never good, unless you are a Democrat. Specifically, the 2016 IP contenders have to weigh in on this and thus far the results are mixed. Republican Governors Chris Christie (NJ) and Scott Walker (WI) both begrudgingly said that they would not want to shut the government down, as did former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. On the other side are the aforementioned Cruz and Sen. Mike Lee, and sorta kinda Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who seems to want it both ways by saying that "The American people support defunding Obamacare and oppose shutting down the government." OK! Not sure how that works out, but here is PolitiFact's take on Rubio's press statement.

So how is it going to end? Good Lord, who knows? I do know that Veep Biden schlepped out to flood-devastated Colorado and promised that regardless of any shutdown, FEMA would provide assistance to those in need which was both reassuring and tactically savvy, all at the same time. Last week, Biden was in Iowa at the Tom Harkin steak fry, which fueled speculation that he was, in fact, running. At the fry, he swapped hats with an Iowan for a photo-op, which only fueled my motherly instinct to yell "DON'T DO THAT!" as a preventative measure against head lice. Joe, don't say I didn't warn you. And don't share your comb or barrettes either.

Wrapping up this week in the Invisible Primary, last night former President Bill Clinton was on David Letterman, who was fishing for Hillary 2016 scoop. Letterman said: “If she is running to your knowledge, blink twice.” Bill denied all knowledge of his wife's intentions, which did not seem to surprise me in the least. Fair turnabout, don't you think?

That's all from the cheap seats. if the government shuts down, I tell my students, the price of pizza is going to sky rocket and beer will be banned in all 50 states. They don't believe me. See? What a smart, terrific group I've got! Hooray for September. And Happy Fall everyone!

Middle of Orientation Post

Not much of a post today, but I've got a little time to kill as I'm in the middle of a talk on time management as part of my orientation for my new gig at South Dakota State.

Whilst effectively multi-tasking between the rah rah lectures and blog reading, I came across this post on skipping Iowa by Jonathan Bernstein.

To reiterate one point: no, it's not too early to talk about this. Laying down the groundwork for Iowa an the other early contests is the essence of the invisible primary. We're fast approaching the time that  events like Tom Harkin's steak fry start to attract possible Democratic hopefuls, say Joe Biden who dropped in this year, and candidates of all stripes will begin trolling the state fair for more important reasons than checking out the butter cow.

One other bit I'd add one the long list of candidates that skipped Iowa, only to flame out in spectacular fashion later is Rudy Giuliani. By skipping these early contests, Giuliani and these other candidates he mentioned showed a fundamental misunderstanding of the process necessary to win the nomination. While that might have been excusible in the 70s when parties and candidates were figuring out the new system, today it's just plain stupid. As we know the triangulation on a candidate by party activists is key to winning the nomination. Pulling out of these early races either shows a candidate doesn't understand this, or that he or she is so desperate at that point because of their systematic failures in the pre-primary phase.

So to rope this back to Christie, if he's serious and smart, he'll no doubt be popping up here in the near future.

“We’ve Only Just Begun!” The IP Graduation Speech From Hell

‘Tis the time of year when chestnuts are roasting – not the kind of chestnuts that Bing Crosby sings about in December, but the old kind that gets tossed around graduation speeches like hacky sacks at a Further concert. Yes, these are the worn-out, unimaginative clichés that riddle university campuses, positioned right after the non-denominational prayer, right before the singing of the alma mater, right around the time the frat boys start to get woozy from the wake & bake and the sorority girls realize their shoe selection was unfortunate for a four hour event where most of it is spent standing.

The world is ahead of you.

Look forward, but also look back.

It is not the end, it is the beginning.

Life is a journey.

So true. So, so true. ALSO, so freakin’ stale they make my eyes roll reflexively. Thus, this IP posting will take these hackneyed phrases and put them to good use: to address the conundrum of how to “run” for office when you are not actually “running” for anything. Because you must walk before you run. And you will fly and soar as far as your wings will take you.

Good. Lord.

OK! Cliché Numero Uno: The world is ahead of you.

This one is dedicated to my girl, HRC, whose world now consists of her “transition office,” the nation of Libya, and the ten foot circumference around Sen. Rand Paul’s tuchas. The multi-perspective view of Hillary’s world begins at the same place but ends very differently: She is aiming for the White House using her experience as evidence of greatness, and Sen. Paul is aiming for the White House using her experience as evidence of skullduggery. The fun, of course, is in the spin. She says she done good as Sec State, he says she should be in prison. Potato, potahto. The interesting story to drop recently was that some of the big-wigs from Clinton’s 2008 campaign have begged off another chance at the gold ring, but as anyone who has visited my hometown knows: The place is lousy with big-wigs. And, apparently, locusts. But let’s not get distracted.

Cliché Numero Dos: Look forward, but also look back.

This goes out to IP fave Sen. Marco Rubio who has taken advantage of the IRS kerfuffle to propose an amendment to the upcoming 2013 Farm Bill (?) that punishes IRS officials who violate the constitutional rights of Americans. Sayeth the good Senator: “This IRS scandal has destroyed the American people’s confidence in this government institution and exposed the dangers of a large, unaccountable government operating under a President and administration that routinely intimidate and harass their political opponents.” Holy cats – knocking the administration AND the IRS in one fell swoop? Nice IP play, sir! Well done. Also, and I’m just whiffing here, it seems that throwing stones at the IRS today is sort of like proposing a Fight Club brawl with Olivia, your 6 year old niece. Who is blindfolded. Sorta easy, ain’t it?

Cliché Numero Tres: It is not the end, it is the beginning.

And hellllooooo NYC Mayoral Candidate Anthony Weiner! (You didn’t think I was gonna let this one go, didja?) I only have three things to say here: One, welcome to the race of a lifetime. Hot dog, this is gonna be FUN, even from the cheap seats. Do you think the New York Post just hired four new cover editors? Two, Congressman, I was wrong about Mark Sanford. But you are no Mark Sanford. Three, are you ready for more (much more) of this? I am proud that this video nugget was created by “a former student working in political consulting or advertising or whatever.” His words not mine, because I got clearance to give him a blind-item shout out. But anyway, Anthony, strap yourself in for more of this. Much, much more. And don’t say I didn’t tell you to wait.

Finally, Cliché Numero Quatro:  Life is a journey.

In this case, a journey to Israel. Mazel Tov to Democratic Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley who recently schlepped to the Middle East in order to talk shop with the chosen people, sharpen his Foreign Policy skills, and prove he’s got what it takes to run for the White House. We haven’t spoken about O’Malley in this blog YET but apparently this is an oversight. He went to Iowa (another designated IP destination) and he’s openly talking about 2016. A bold move from a bold man… that no one outside of Maryland has ever heard of. The good news: There’s still time!

And so graduates, faculty, proud parents, and blog readers: Keep reaching for the stars. You are the future, your education is just beginning, believe in your dreams and always remember: You did it. What you did is between you and your conscience, but I’m a liberal so I say go for it.    

Update on the Iowa Senate Race

Though this is hardly breaking news, Secretary of Agriculture (and popular former governor) Tom Vilsack has indicated that he has no interest in running for Senator Harkin's seat.  This despite a serious advantage he had in very low negatives amongst Iowa voters.  Bruce Braley, the only announced candidate, is seemingly standing alone.  The two other Democrats that were in the best position to make a run, Rep. Dave Loebsack and former Rep. Leonard Boswell, have quickly endorsed Braley's candidacy, which in all likelihood will forestall a real nomination contest.  As for other buzzed about folks: Sec. Vilsack's wife, Christie, who gave Steve King his toughest reelection bid to date, has also removed herself from the offing; and former governor Chet Culver has made no indication, but his failed reelection bid (just shy of 10 points) would probably give him serious pause to run.

It would seem then that the Democrat's invisible primary may have sorted itself out in a matter of a couple weeks.  The quick response from the NRSC claims that the choice was the most ideologically extreme between Braley and Loebsack; a laughable accusation considering the dw-nomiate scores of -.36 and -.357 respectively.  But, who'd expect the NRSC would be a reliable source for such things?  If quick triangulation is an indication of a strong party organization, Iowa Democrats would seem have themselves a healthy party network right now.

Now we'll play the waiting game for the Republicans.  Given the personalities involved, I don't think they'll sort themselves out quite as quickly...

Dispatch from Iowa

Though this is hardly breaking news, it does speak to the critical function that some elected officials play in the invisible primary, but as the events pre-dated the establishment of the blog I'll take this topic on now.  It would seem that my governor, Terry Branstad, seems to have some unease with the whole endorsement bit.

As we know, the winning of endorsements is a critical indicator of a candidate's likelihood of winning the nomination.  Given Iowa's privileged position in the nomination calendar, it's clear that our governor's nod would be quite the prize for a Republican hopeful.  However, the governor delayed making his endorsement of Gov. Romney until early April, a full three months after the caucus.  In his regular youtube yack session following his endorsement, he mentioned that part of his reason for not endorsing was to be a "good host" (let's call it Iowa nice) and in a press conference he claimed that he wanted his endorsement to "focus on uniting" the party at a time when the party needed to quickly land on a nominee.

In late November following the election, Branstad drew a bit of attention when he was speculating on the utility of the Iowa Straw Poll.  The straw poll, to put it diplomatically, is a spectacle bordering on the ridiculous that has drawn increasing media attention as a test of viability for the Republican field half a year in advance of the Iowa caucus.  Why this is, is a mystery to most careful observers.  It is terrible at identifying the eventual nominee (over the years a nominee or two have opted out entirely and the winner of the straw poll rarely takes the nomination) and it is in no way representative of Republican caucus goers.  Contestants literally pay participants to cast votes their way.  Branstad rightly diagnoses these maladies and proposes other fundraisers to draw candidates to Iowa during the summer.  He pointed squarely at Rep. Michele Bachmann's victory as a sure sign that the affair is promoting the precisely wrong kind of candidates that the party should be considering.

While I have no problem at all with the scrapping of the event (though it's the party's, not the governor's to scrap), I think Gov. Branstad is missing a key role that he could have played that would be far more influential than the straw poll in shaping the outcome of the caucus: making a timely endorsement.  If he is so concerned that candidates at the margins are taking center stage, the last thing he should do is abdicate his political powers by endorsing after the caucus is long over.  For his own good and the good of the party, I'd humbly suggest to the governor that he ought to embrace his role in the invisible primary.